This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

The Undisclosed Renminbi Basket: Are the Markets Telling us something about where the Renminbi – US Dollar Exchange Rate is Going?

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Michael Funke ()
Marc Gronwald ()

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

On 21 July 2005 China adopted an undisclosed basket exchange rate regime. We formally assess and envisage the gradual evolution of the renminbi over time. We utilize nonlinear dependencies in the renminbi exchange rate and describe the smooth transition of the renminbi/U.S. dollar (RMB/USD) exchange rate using the family of time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) models. Specifically, the nonlinear models allow for a smooth transition from one optimal level to another. Our estimation results imply that the RMB/USD exchange rate will likely be about 7.10 RMB/USD in summer/autumn 2009.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cesifo.de/DocCIDL/cesifo1_wp2272.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number CESifo Working Paper No. 2272.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length:
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2272

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Julio Saavedra).

Related research
Keywords: China; renminbi; de facto exchange rate regime; TV-AR model; TV-AR-GARCH model;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

  1. Kim, Yong Jin, 2007. "A model of industrial hollowing-out of neighboring countries by the economic growth of China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 122-138. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Boero, Gianna & Marrocu, Emanuela, 2002. "The Performance of Non-linear Exchange Rate Models: A Forecasting Comparison," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(7), pages 513-42, November.
  3. Lall, Sanjaya & Albaladejo, Manuel, 2004. "China's Competitive Performance: A Threat to East Asian Manufactured Exports?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(9), pages 1441-1466, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. GAULIER, Guillaume & LEMOINE, Francoise & UNAL-KESENCI, Deniz, 2007. "China's emergence and the reorganisation of trade flows in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 209-243. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2007. "The Overvaluation of Renminbi Undervaluation," NBER Working Papers 12850, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Lundbergh, Stefan & Terasvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick, 2003. "Time-Varying Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(1), pages 104-21, January.
    Other versions:
  8. Skalin, Joakim & Teräsvirta, Timo, 1998. "Modelling asymmetries and moving equilibria in unemployment rates," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 262, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 05 Oct 1998.
  9. Lin, Chien-Fu Jeff & Terasvirta, Timo, 1994. "Testing the constancy of regression parameters against continuous structural change," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 211-228, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Matthew T. Holt & Lee A. Craig, 2006. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog-Corn Cycle: A Time-Varying STAR Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, American Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 215-233, 02. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Michael Funke & Jörg Rahn, 2005. "Just how Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 20504, Hamburg University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  12. van Dijk, Dick & Teräsvirta, Timo & Franses, Philip Hans, 2000. "Smooth Transition Autoregressive Models - A Survey of Recent Developments," Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 380, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 17 Jan 2001. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  13. Cao, Liangyue & Soofi, Abdol S., 1999. "Nonlinear deterministic forecasting of daily dollar exchange rates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 421-430, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? You can create a compilation of all publications of a group of people, say alumni of a program, your students or memers of an association.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-3.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.