Instability in Exchange Rates of the World Leading Currencies: Implications of a Spatial Competition Model among Central Banks (Currencies, Competition, and Clans)
AbstractWe use a spatial competition based model in a two-stage game setup to assess whether equilibrium in exchange rates among the leading currencies is attainable. We show that a stable equilibrium can be reached in the case of two leading currencies, but not in the case of three. In our model, central banks of leading currencies attract, through the workings of their objective and policy, small currencies that tie with leading currencies via exchange rate regimes. This can be thought of as a competition to link smaller currencies to a leading currency that is motivated by the fact that such a tie greatly reduces volatility within such an informal â€œcurrency areaâ€. Our theoretical findings are supported by empirical evidence. Since firms, traders, and countries currently recognize three leading currencies and their economic behavior reflects this, we may expect disagreement on overvaluation or undervaluation of certain currencies to continue.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by EconWPA in its series Macroeconomics with number 0406003.
Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: 04 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Note: Type of Document - pdf; pages: 33
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://126.96.36.199
exchange rates; exchange rate regimes; central bank policy; monetary union; spatial competition;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
- E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- N20 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - General, International, or Comparative
- O23 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002.
"Fear Of Floating,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel., 1987.
"Obstacles to International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination,"
Economics Working Papers
8737, University of California at Berkeley.
- Frankel, Jeffrey, 1987. "Obstacles to International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt2vv7z9cr, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1988. "Obstacles to International Macroeconomic Policy Coordination," NBER Working Papers 2505, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2004.
"The modern history of exchange rate arrangements: A reinterpretation,"
14070, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2004. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-48, February.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Benassy-Quere, AgnEs & Fontagne, Lionel & LahrEche-Revil, Amina, 2001. "Exchange-Rate Strategies in the Competition for Attracting Foreign Direct Investment," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 178-198, June.
- Ernesto H. Stein & Natalia Salazar & Roberto Steiner & Eugenio Díaz-Bonilla & Marco Bonomo & Juan C. Jaramillo & Hector E. Schamis & Alberto Pascó-Front & Piero Ghezzi & Maria Cristina Terra & José, . "The Currency Game: Exchange Rate Politics in Latin America," IDB Publications 77398, Inter-American Development Bank.
- B.Curtis Eaton & Richard G. Lipsey, 1972.
"The Principle of Minimum Differentiation Reconsidered: Some New Developments in the Theory of Spatial Competition,"
87, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Eaton, B Curtis & Lipsey, Richard G, 1975. "The Principle of Minimum Differentiation Reconsidered: Some New Developments in the Theory of Spatial Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(1), pages 27-49, January.
- Thornton, Daniel L & Batten, Dallas S, 1985. "Lag-Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 164-78, May.
- Hess, Gregory D. & Porter, Richard D., 1993. "Comparing interest-rate spreads and money growth as predictors of output growth: Granger causality in the sense Granger intended," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 45(3-4), pages 247-268.
- Battilossi, Stefano & Cassis, Youssef (ed.), 2002. "European Banks and the American Challenge: Competition and Cooperation in International Banking Under Bretton Woods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199250271.
- Devereux, Michael B & Shi, Kang & Xu, Juanyi, 2004.
"Global Monetary Policy Under a Dollar Standard,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4317, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "The Evolving Asian Financial Architecture," Centre for International Economic Studies Working Papers 2002-03, University of Adelaide, Centre for International Economic Studies.
- Hsiao, Cheng, 1981. "Autoregressive modelling and money-income causality detection," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 85-106.
- Abul M.M. Masih & Rumi Masih, 1998. "Does money cause prices, or the other way around?: Multi-country econometric evidence including error-correction modelling from South-east Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 138-160, September.
- Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & Cedric Tille, 1999.
"Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro,"
NBER Working Papers
7382, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel & CÈdric Tille, 2003. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 44(1), pages 223-242, February.
- Michael Devereux & Charles Engel & Cedric Tille, 1999. "Exchange-Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," Working Papers 0034, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
- Michael Devereux & Charles Engel & Cedric Tille, 1999. "Exchange-Rate Pass-Through and the Welfare Effects of the Euro," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 0034, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
- John Williamson, 1999.
"Crawling Bands or Monitoring Bands: How to Manage Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility,"
PB99-03, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Williamson, John, 1998. "Crawling Bands or Monitoring Bands: How to Manage Exchange Rates in a World of Capital Mobility," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 1(1), pages 59-79, October.
- Madden, Gary & Savage, Scott & McDonald, Andrew, 2000. "Assessing the Economic Preconditions for a Yen Bloc," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 25-32, March.
- Atish R. Ghosh & Anne-Marie Gulde & Holger C. Wolf, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Choices and Consequences," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072408, December.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.