IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/intfin/v20y2010i2p149-165.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing co-ordinated Asian exchange rate regimes: Proposal for a possible move towards a common currency

Author

Listed:
  • Aggarwal, Raj
  • Muckley, Cal B.

Abstract

This study assesses prospective Asian exchange rate regimes and finds short- and long-run currency dynamics more conducive to the introduction of a common peg based on a basket of the European euro, the United States dollar and the Japanese yen than the alternative of a United States dollar peg exchange rate regime. Exchange rate systems of 3- 4- and 5-Asian currencies are considered and the dynamics in a set of four European currencies prior to the introduction of the Euro provides benchmark evidence. The evidence for an Asian basket peg exchange rate regime is strengthened when, unlike prior studies, estimates of the long-run parameters account for time-varying volatility effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Aggarwal, Raj & Muckley, Cal B., 2010. "Assessing co-ordinated Asian exchange rate regimes: Proposal for a possible move towards a common currency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 149-165, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:20:y:2010:i:2:p:149-165
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1042-4431(10)00003-X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
    2. Hernandez, Leonardo & Montiel, Peter J., 2003. "Post-crisis exchange rate policy in five Asian countries: Filling in the "hollow middle"?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 336-369, September.
    3. Kenneth A. Froot & Tarun Ramadorai, 2005. "Currency Returns, Intrinsic Value, and Institutional‐Investor Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1535-1566, June.
    4. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(1), pages 122-150, February.
    5. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December.
    6. John Williamson, 2005. "A Currency Basket for East Asia, Not Just China," Policy Briefs PB05-01, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    7. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    8. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
    10. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-472, August.
    11. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    12. Kocenda, Evzen & Hanousek, Jan & Engelmann, Dirk, 2008. "Currencies, competition, and clans," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 1115-1132.
    13. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    14. Bowman, Chakriya, 2005. "Yen bloc or koala bloc? Currency relationships after the East Asian crisis," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 83-96, January.
    15. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
    16. Lee, Tae-Hwy & Tse, Yiuman, 1996. "Cointegration tests with conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(2), pages 401-410, August.
    17. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "Cointegration among Asian currencies: Evidence of the increasing influence of the Japanese yen," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 291-308, September.
    18. Ito, Takatoshi & Ogawa, Eiji & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 1998. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 256-304, December.
    19. Ronald McKinnon, 2007. "Why China Should Keep Its Dollar Peg," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 43-70, March.
    20. Gannon, Gerard L., 1996. "First and second order inefficiency in Australasian currency markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 315-327, July.
    21. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Kim, Yoonbai & Sun, Wei, 2007. "Characterizing exchange rate policy in East Asia: A reconsideration," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 448-465, June.
    22. Guillermo A. Calvo & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2003. "The Mirage of Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Market Countries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 99-118, Fall.
    23. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    24. Kawai, Masahiro, 2002. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia: Lessons from the 1997-98 Currency Crisis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 167-204, December.
    25. Rune Höglund & Ralf Östermark, 2003. "Size and power of some cointegration tests under structural breaks and heteroskedastic noise," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 44(1), pages 1-22, January.
    26. Aggarwal, Raj & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1993. "Cointegration among Southeast Asian and Japanese currencies: Preliminary evidence of a Yen bloc?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 161-166.
    27. Moshirian, Fariborz, 2009. "Can an Asia Pacific Community, similar to the European Community, emerge?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 2-8, January.
    28. Alexakis, Panayotis & Apergis, Nicholas, 1996. "ARCH effects and cointegration: Is the foreign exchange market efficient?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 687-697, May.
    29. Shirono, Kazuko, 2008. "Real effects of common currencies in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 199-212, June.
    30. Huang, Ying & Guo, Feng, 2006. "Is currency union a feasible option in East Asia?: A multivariate structural VAR approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 77-94, March.
    31. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
    32. Carol Alexander, 2002. "Principal Component Models for Generating Large GARCH Covariance Matrices," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 31(2), pages 337-359, July.
    33. Bollerslev, Tim, 1987. "A Conditionally Heteroskedastic Time Series Model for Speculative Prices and Rates of Return," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 69(3), pages 542-547, August.
    34. Pan, Ming-Shiun & Liu, Y. Angela & Roth, Herbert J., 1999. "Common stochastic trends and volatility in Asian-Pacific equity markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 161-172.
    35. Ying Huang & Feng Guo, 2007. "Asymmetric Effects on East Asian Financial Integration: Is There "Japanese Dominance"?," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(02), pages 193-214.
    36. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    37. Colm Kearney & Cal Muckley, 2007. "Is North and Southeast Asia becoming a yen block?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(3), pages 337-351.
    38. Tse, Y. K. & Ng, L. K., 1997. "The cointegration of Asian currencies revisited," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 109-114, March.
    39. Ulrich Volz, 2010. "Prospects for Monetary Cooperation and Integration in East Asia," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262013991, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Thuraisamy, Kannan & Gannon, Gerard, 2013. "Modelling the sovereign linkages of key Latin American economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 222-239.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kearney, Colm & Muckley, Cal, 2008. "Can the traditional Asian US dollar peg exchange rate regime be extended to include the Japanese yen?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 870-885, December.
    2. Kim, Bong-Han & Kim, Hyeongwoo & Min, Hong-Ghi, 2013. "Reassessing the link between the Japanese yen and emerging Asian currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 306-326.
    3. Lucey, Brian M. & Muckley, Cal, 2011. "Robust global stock market interdependencies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 215-224, August.
    4. Bredin, Don & Muckley, Cal, 2011. "An emerging equilibrium in the EU emissions trading scheme," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 353-362, March.
    5. Thuraisamy, Kannan & Gannon, Gerard, 2013. "Modelling the sovereign linkages of key Latin American economies," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 222-239.
    6. Kim, Bong-Han & Min, Hong-Ghi & McDonald, Judy & Hwang, Young-Soon, 2012. "Yen-synchronization of floating East Asian currencies: A regime-switching regression model and micro-structural analysis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 221-232.
    7. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    8. Azali, M. & Royfaizal, R.C. & Lee, C., 2008. "Japanese Yen as an alternative vehicle currency in Asian," MPRA Paper 11891, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008.
    9. Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "Capital Markets and Exchange Rate Stabilization in East Asia: Diversifying Risk Based on Currency Baskets," Chapters, in: Koichi Hamada & Beate Reszat & Ulrich Volz (ed.), Towards Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience," Working papers 2008-49, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    11. Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Ahmed M Khalid & Francesco Barbera, 2014. "It’s not yen, euro or koala bloc: Greenback is still dominant in East Asia," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 39(4), pages 549-571, November.
    12. Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Assessing Asian Exchange Rates Coordination under Regional Currency Basket System," AMSE Working Papers 1345, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France, revised Sep 2013.
    13. M., Azali & Lee, Chin, 2009. "Asian Financial Integration during the Pre- and Post-crisis Periods," MPRA Paper 40656, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2009.
    14. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    15. de Truchis, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2013. "Southeast Asian monetary integration: New evidences from fractional cointegration of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 394-412.
    16. Krishna M. Kasibhatla & David Stewart & Swapan Sen & John Malindretos, 2006. "Are Daily Stock Price Indices in the Major European Equity Markets Cointegrated? Tests and Evidence," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 50(2), pages 47-57, October.
    17. Lee, Chin & M., Azali, 2013. "Financial Integration among ASEAN+3 Countries: Evidence from Exchange Rates," MPRA Paper 58162, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Monzur Hossain, 2008. "Currency Regime Choice: A Survey of Empirical Literature," AIUB Bus Econ Working Paper Series AIUB-BUS-ECON-2008-11, American International University-Bangladesh (AIUB), Office of Research and Publications (ORP), revised Apr 2008.
    19. Kwack, Sung Y., 2005. "Exchange rate and monetary regime options for regional cooperation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 57-75, February.
    20. Hizir Sofyan & M. Shabri Abd. Majid & Moh. Rizky Rahmanda, 2019. "Modeling Dynamic Causalities between the Indonesian Rupiah and Forex Markets of ASEAN, Japan and Europe," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 13(1), March.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:20:y:2010:i:2:p:149-165. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/intfin .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.