This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
WenShwo Fang (Feng Chia University)
YiHao Lai (Feng Chia University)
Stephen M. Miller (University of Connecticut and University of Nevada Las Vegas)

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The effects of exchange rate risk have interested researchers, since the collapse of fixed exchange rates. Little consensus exists, however, regarding its effect on exports. Previous studies implicitly assume symmetry. This paper tests the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate risk with a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH(1,1)-M model. The asymmetry means that exchange rate risk (volatility) affects exports differently during appreciations and depreciations of the exchange rate. The data include bilateral exports from eight Asian countries to the US. The empirical results show that real exchange rate risk significantly affects exports for all countries, negative or positive, in periods of depreciation or appreciation. For five of the eight countries, the effects of exchange risk are asymmetric. Thus, policy makers can consider the stability of the exchange rate in addition to its depreciation as a method of stimulating export growth.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help file. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/working/2005-09.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function: Full text
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by University of Connecticut, Department of Economics in its series Working papers with number 2005-09.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML, plain text, BibTeX, RIS (EndNote), ReDIF
Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2005
Date of revision:
Publication status: Forthcoming in Journal of International Money and Finance
Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2005-09

Contact details of provider:
Postal: University of Connecticut 341 Mansfield Road, Unit 1063 Storrs, CT 06269-1063
Phone: (860) 486-4889
Fax: (860) 486-4463
Web page: http://www.econ.uconn.edu/
More information through EDIRC

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Christian Zimmermann).

Related research
Keywords: depreciation exchange rate risk exports bivariate GARCH-M model

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models
F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Country and Industry Studies of Trade
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & David Romer & Teresa Cyrus, 1996. "Trade and Growth in East Asian Countries: Cause and Effect?," NBER Working Papers 5732, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Kanas, Angelos, 1997. "Is economic exposure asymmetric between long-run depreciations and appreciations? Testing using cointegration analysis," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 27-42, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Paul Krugman, 1986. "Pricing to Market when the Exchange Rate Changes," NBER Working Papers 1926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Hodrick, Robert J. & Srivastava, Sanjay, 1984. "An investigation of risk and return in forward foreign exchange," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 5-29, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Wen Shwo Fang & Henry Thompson, 2004. "Exchange Rate Risk And Export Revenue In Taiwan," Pacific Economic Review, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 9(2), pages 117-129, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Arize, A. C., 1997. "Foreign trade and exchange-rate risk in the G-7 countries: Cointegration and error-correction models," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 95-112. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  11. Rose, Andrew K., 1990. "Exchange rates and the trade balance : Some evidence from developing countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 271-275, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. Tse, Y K & Tsui, Albert K C, 2002. "A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model with Time-Varying Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 351-62, July.
  13. Arize, A. C., 1996. "Real exchange-rate volatility and trade flows: The experience of eight European economies," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 187-205. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2004. "Exchange rate depreciation and exports: The case of Singapore revisited," Working papers 2004-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  16. Abeysinghe, Tilak & Tan, Lin Yeok, 1998. "Exchange Rate Appreciation and Export Competitiveness. The Case of Singapore," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(1), pages 51-55, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  18. Klaassen, Franc, 2004. "Why is it so difficult to find an effect of exchange rate risk on trade?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 817-839, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  19. Asseery, A. & Peel, D. A., 1991. "The effects of exchange rate volatility on exports : Some new estimates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 173-177, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  20. Mahdavi, Saeid, 2000. "Do German, Japanese, and U.S. Export Prices Asymmetrically Respond to Exchange Rate Changes? Evidence from Aggregate Data," Contemporary Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(1), pages 70-81, January.
  21. Sven W. Arndt & J. David Richardson, 1988. "Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 2230, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  22. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  23. Arize, Augustine C & Osang, Thomas & Slottje, Daniel J, 2000. "Exchange-Rate Volatility and Foreign Trade: Evidence from Thirteen LDC's," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(1), pages 10-17, January.
  24. Kroner, Kenneth F. & Lastrapes, William D., 1993. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on international trade: Reduced form estimates using the GARCH-in-mean model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 298-318, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  25. McKenzie, Michael D. & Brooks, Robert D., 1997. "The impact of exchange rate volatility on German-US trade flows," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 73-87, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  26. Chowdhury, Abdur R, 1993. "Does Exchange Rate Volatility Depress Trade Flows? Evidence from Error-Correction Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 700-706, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc also has a blog.

This page was last updated on 2008-8-25.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.