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Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence

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  • WenShwo Fang

    (Feng Chia University)

  • YiHao Lai

    (Feng Chia University)

  • Stephen M. Miller

    (University of Connecticut and University of Nevada Las Vegas)

Abstract

The effects of exchange rate risk have interested researchers, since the collapse of fixed exchange rates. Little consensus exists, however, regarding its effect on exports. Previous studies implicitly assume symmetry. This paper tests the hypothesis of asymmetric effects of exchange rate risk with a dynamic conditional correlation bivariate GARCH(1,1)-M model. The asymmetry means that exchange rate risk (volatility) affects exports differently during appreciations and depreciations of the exchange rate. The data include bilateral exports from eight Asian countries to the US. The empirical results show that real exchange rate risk significantly affects exports for all countries, negative or positive, in periods of depreciation or appreciation. For five of the eight countries, the effects of exchange risk are asymmetric. Thus, policy makers can consider the stability of the exchange rate in addition to its depreciation as a method of stimulating export growth.

Suggested Citation

  • WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2005. "Does Exchange Rate Risk Affect Exports Asymmetrically? Asian Evidence," Working papers 2005-09, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:uct:uconnp:2005-09
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    depreciation; exchange rate risk; exports; bivariate GARCH-M model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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