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(De)Stabilizing Exchange Rate Strategies In East Asian Monetary And Economic Integration

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  • GUNTHER SCHNABL

    (University of Leipzig, Grimmaische Str. 12, 04109 Leipzig, Germany)

  • KRISTINA SPANTIG

    (Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, Friedrich-Ebert-Allee 36, 53113 Bonn, Germany)

Abstract

The East Asian monetary integration process is at the crossroads. Given very benign liquidity conditions in the US, the prevailing common US dollar peg has contributed to growing macroeconomic and financial instability in the region. This has sparked demands to embark on an independent monetary integration process in East Asia. The paper shows that, however, neither the Japanese yen nor the Chinese yuan can challenge the US dollar as anchor currency in the region. Large fluctuations of the Japanese yen against the US dollar have undermined the potential of the Japanese yen to become a regional anchor currency. Exchange rate stability of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar has enhanced intra-regional exchange rate stability and growth, stressing the potential of the Chinese yuan to emerge as a regional anchor currency. Yet, it is shown that underdeveloped Chinese capital markets and financial repression originating in US low interest rate policies constitute an insurmountable impediment for the Chinese yuan to gain anchor currency status in East Asia. Empirical estimations provide evidence in favor of positive growth effects of the exchange rate stability against the US dollar in East Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Gunther Schnabl & Kristina Spantig, 2016. "(De)Stabilizing Exchange Rate Strategies In East Asian Monetary And Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-24, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsi:serxxx:v:61:y:2016:i:02:n:s021759081640021x
    DOI: 10.1142/S021759081640021X
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    2. THORBECKE, Willem, 2016. "China's Electronics Exports, the Renminbi, and Exchange Rates in Supply Chain Countries," Discussion papers 16088, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Luca Alfieri, 2021. "Heterogeneity of financial institutions in the process of economic and monetary integration in East Asia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 1053-1076, April.

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