Crisis, Capital Controls and Covered Interest Parity: Evidence from China in Transformation
AbstractThis paper aims to investigate the intensity and the effectiveness of the capital controls in China from 2003 to 2010, with special attention to the period of financial turbulence that erupted in the summer of 2007. We employ a two-regime threshold autoregressive model to study the Renminbi yield differential between the onshore interest rate and its non-deliverable forward (NDF)-implied offshore interest rate. We find that the de facto intensity of capital controls measured by the threshold increases over time, even during the period of financial turbulence. Moreover, a slightly lower speed of adjustment to the threshold implies that the capital controls are effective in this context.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by HAL in its series PSE Working Papers with number halshs-00660654.
Date of creation: 17 Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: http://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-00660654
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/
Covered Interest Parity ; Capital Control ; China ; Threshold Autoregressive model ; GARCH effect ; Financial Crisis;
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-01-25 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2012-01-25 (International Finance)
- NEP-TRA-2012-01-25 (Transition Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Valerie Mignon & Gilles Dufrenot, 2004. "Modeling the French Consumption Function Using SETAR Models," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(20), pages 1-16.
- Mark Holmes & Yangru Wu, 1997. "Capital controls and covered interest parity in the EU: Evidence from a panel-data unit root test," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 133(1), pages 76-89, March.
- Holmes, Mark J., 2001. "New Evidence on Real Exchange Rate Stationarity and Purchasing Power Parity in Less Developed Countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 601-614, October.
- Levy Yeyati, Eduardo & Schmukler, Sergio L. & Van Horen, Neeltje, 2009. "International financial integration through the law of one price: The role of liquidity and capital controls," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 432-463, July.
- Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Singh, Nirvikar, 2009.
"Indian Capital Control Liberalization: Evidence from NDF Markets,"
13630, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Michael Hutchison & Jake Kendall & Gurnain Pasricha & Nirvikar Singh, 2009. "Indian Capital Control Liberalization : Evidence from NDF Markets," Finance Working Papers 22971, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain & Singh, Nirvikar, 2009. "Indian capital control liberalization: Evidence from NDF markets," Working Papers 09/60, National Institute of Public Finance and Policy.
- Hutchison, Michael & Kendall, Jake & Pasricha, Gurnain & Singh, Nirvikar, 2010. "Indian Capital Control Liberalization: Evidence from NDF Markets," MPRA Paper 21771, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980.
"Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
- Chi-Young Choi & Young-Kyu Moh, 2007. "How useful are tests for unit-root in distinguishing unit-root processes from stationary but non-linear processes?," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(1), pages 82-112, 03.
- repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:20:p:1-16 is not listed on IDEAS
- Yin-Wong Cheung & Guonan Ma & Robert N. McCauley, 2010.
"Renminbising China's Foreign Assets,"
162010, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Guonan Ma & Corrinne Ho & Robert N McCauley, 2004. "The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, June.
- Prachowny, Martin F J, 1970. "A Note on Interest Parity and the Supply of Arbitrage Funds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(3), pages 540-45, May-June.
- Frederic Bec & Melika Ben Salem & Marine Carrasco, 2004. "Tests for Unit-Root versus Threshold Specification With an Application to the Purchasing Power Parity Relationship," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 382-395, October.
- Guonan Ma & RobertN McCauley, 2008. "Efficacy Of China'S Capital Controls: Evidence From Price And Flow Data," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 104-123, 02.
- Ma, Guonan & McCauley, Robert N., 2013.
"Is China or India more financially open?,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 6-27.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (CCSD).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.