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China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the Renminbi as an International Currency

Author

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  • Ronald Ian McKinnon
  • Gunther Schnabl

Abstract

China has been provoked into speeding renmnibi internationalization. But despite rapid growth in offshore financial markets in RMB, the Chinese authorities are essentially trapped into maintaining exchange controls—reinforced by financial repression in domestic interest rates—to avoid an avalanche of foreign capital inflows that would threaten inflation and asset price bubbles by driving nominal interest rates on RMB assets down further. Because a floating (appreciating) exchange rate could attract even more hot money inflows, the People’s Bank of China should focus on tightly stabilizing the yuan/ dollar exchange rate to encourage naturally high wage increases for balancing China’s international competitiveness.

Suggested Citation

  • Ronald Ian McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2014. "China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression: The Conflicted Emergence of the Renminbi as an International Currency," CESifo Working Paper Series 4649, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_4649
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate and International Adjustment in Wages, Prices and Interest Rates: Japan Déjà Vu?," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 52(2), pages 276-303, June.
    2. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(6), pages 667-693, June.
    3. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, July.
    4. Alexander Ballantyne & Megan Garner & Michelle Wright, 2013. "Developments in Renminbi Internationalisation," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 65-74, June.
    5. Loeffler, Axel & Schnabl, Gunther & Schobert, Franziska, 2013. "Limits of monetary policy autonomy and exchange rate flexibility by East Asian central banks," Working Papers 122, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
    6. McKinnon, Ronald I., 2013. "The Unloved Dollar Standard: From Bretton Woods to the Rise of China," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199937004.
    7. Ronald McKinnon & Zhao Liu, 2013. "Modern Currency Wars : The United States versus Japan," Finance Working Papers 23714, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    8. Gunther Schnabl, 2013. "The Macroeconomic Policy Challenges of Balance Sheet Recession: Lessons from Japan for the European Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4249, CESifo.
    9. Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "The role of the chinese dollar peg for macroeconomic stability in China and the world economy," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series 13-2010, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
    10. Eswar S. Prasad & Lei Ye, 2011. "The renminbi’s role in the global monetary system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov, pages 127-197.
    11. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, August.
    12. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2009. "The Case for Stabilizing China's Exchange Rate: Setting the Stage for Fiscal Expansion," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 17(1), pages 1-32, January.
    13. McKinnon, Ronald I., 1979. "Money in International Exchange: The Convertible Currency System," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195024098.
    14. Ronald I. McKinnon & Kenichi Ohno, 1997. "Dollar and Yen: Resolving Economic Conflict between the United States and Japan," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262133350, December.
    15. Qiao, Hong, 2007. "Exchange rates and trade balances under the dollar standard," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 765-782.
    16. William R. Cline & John Williamson, 2012. "Updated Estimates of Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Policy Briefs PB12-23, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gunther Schnabl & Kristina Spantig, 2016. "(De)Stabilizing Exchange Rate Strategies In East Asian Monetary And Economic Integration," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(02), pages 1-24, June.
    2. Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "China's Overinvestment and International Trade Conflicts," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 27(5), pages 37-62, September.
    3. Naoyuki Yoshino & Sahoko Kaji & Tamon Asonuma, 2014. "Dynamic Transition of Exchange Rate Regime in China," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 22(3), pages 36-55, July.
    4. Tang, Bo, 2015. "Real exchange rate and economic growth in China: A cointegrated VAR approach," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 293-310.
    5. Xue GAO & Hsu-Ling CHANG & Chi-Wei SU, 2018. "Does exchange rate always affect the number of inbound tourists significantly in China?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(614), S), pages 55-72, Spring.
    6. Andrea Fracasso, 2015. "Economic Rebalancing and Growth: the Japanese experience and China’s prospects," DEM Discussion Papers 2015/07, Department of Economics and Management.
    7. Gunther Schnabl, 2017. "Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China: Lessons from Japan," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 25(1), pages 32-57, January.
    8. Yang‐Chao Wang & Jui‐Jung Tsai & Shushu Li & Yiying Huang, 2023. "The impacts of RMB internationalization on onshore and offshore RMB markets," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 23(3), pages 502-523, September.
    9. Hoffmann, Andreas & Schnabl, Gunther, 2016. "Monetary policies of industrial countries, emerging market credit cycles and feedback effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 855-873.
    10. Yoshino, Naoyuki & Asonuma, Tamon, 2017. "Optimal Dynamic Path during the Transition of Exchange Rate Regime: Analysis of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Malaysia, and Singapore," ADBI Working Papers 765, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    11. Kristina Spantig, 2015. "International monetary policy spillovers—can the RMB and the euro challenge the hegemony of the US dollar?," Asia Europe Journal, Springer, vol. 13(4), pages 459-478, December.
    12. Lihui Wang & Zhihong Liu & Huailong Shi, 2022. "The Impact of the Pilot Free Trade Zone on Regional Financial Development," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 30(5), pages 154-184, September.
    13. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2018. "Warum der frühe Ausstieg aus der finanziellen Repression lohnt [Why an Early Exit from Financial Repression is Worthwhile]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 98(7), pages 498-503, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    China; informal dollar standard; internationalization of renminbi; exchange rate stabilization; inflation; financial repression;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions

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