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Why the renminbi might be overvalued (but probably isn’t)

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  • Yin-Wong Cheung
  • Menzie D. Chinn
  • Eiji Fujii

Abstract

The Renminbi (RMB) is evaluated using relative PPP, absolute PPP, and Balassa-Samuelson criteria. We find that some approaches imply substantial undervaluation of the RMB, while others imply little or none. Yet a few others indicate slight overvaluation. However, even when the estimated degrees of undervaluation are large, the gap between predicted and actual values is not always statistically significant. We also find that including measures of institutions, such as the absence of corruption, results in smaller estimates of RMB undervaluation.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco in its journal Proceedings.

Volume (Year): (2005)
Issue (Month): ()
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfpr:y:2005:x:18

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  1. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 1999. "Hedging and Financial Fragility in Fixed Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Working Papers 7143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Yin-Wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2007. "Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?," CESifo Working Paper Series 1943, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Rod Tyers & Yongxiang Bu & Ian Bain, 2006. "China’s Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2006-466, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  3. Kwack, Sung Yeung & Ahn, Choong Y. & Lee, Young S. & Yang, Doo Y., 2007. "Consistent estimates of world trade elasticities and an application to the effects of Chinese Yuan (RMB) appreciation," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 314-330, April.
  4. Lamin Leigh & Steven Vincent Dunaway & Xiangming Li, 2006. "How Robust Are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 06/220, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2009. "On Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Is Emerging Asia Different?," Working Papers 2009-38, CEPII research center.
  6. DANNE, Christian & SCHNABL, Gunther, 2008. "A role model for China? Exchange rate flexibility and monetary policy in Japan," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 183-196, June.
  7. Morris Goldstein, 2006. "Renminbi Controversies," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 26(2), pages 251-266, Spring/Su.
  8. Moosa, Imad A., 2011. "“Undermining the Case for a Trade War between the U.S. and China” - Una critica all’ipotesi di una guerra commerciale tra Stati Uniti e Cina," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 64(3), pages 365-388.
  9. Yin-wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2006. "The Illusion of Precision and the Role of the Renminbi in Regional Integration," Working Papers 182006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.

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