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China'S Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: A Counterfactual Analysis

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  • Rod Tyers
  • Iain Bain
  • Yongxiang Bu

Abstract

China's 'equilibrium' real effective exchange rate is explored using an adaptation of the Devarajan-Lewis-Robinson three-good general equilibrium model under a variety of assumptions about the balance of trade. The absence of secondary indices of import and export prices necessitates their construction from trade data. Some undervaluation is suggested in the lead-up to and during the financial crisis, due in part to an extraordinary accumulation of foreign reserves following exchange rate integration in 1994. If, instead, China had run a more typical trade balance prior to the crisis its real effective exchange rate would have been higher by about a tenth. Copyright 2008 The Authors Journal compilation 2008 Blackwell Publishing Ltd

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Wiley Blackwell in its journal Pacific Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 13 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 (02)
Pages: 17-39

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Handle: RePEc:bla:pacecr:v:13:y:2008:i:1:p:17-39

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  1. WHALLEY, John & XIN, Xian, 2010. "China's FDI and non-FDI economies and the sustainability of future high Chinese growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 123-135, March.
  2. Takatoshi Ito & Kathryn M. Dominguez & Moeen Qureshi & Zhang Shengman & Masaru Yoshitomi, 1999. "Capital Flows to East Asia," NBER Chapters, in: International Capital Flows, pages 111-190 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," NBER Working Papers 11306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "Direct Investment, Rising Real Wages and the Absorption of Excess Labor in the Periphery," NBER Working Papers 10626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Menzie D. Chinn & Hiro Ito, 2005. "Current Account Balances, Financial Development and Institutions: Assaying the World "Savings Glut"," NBER Working Papers 11761, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. John G. Fernald & Oliver D. Babson, 1999. "Why has China survived the Asian crisis so well? What risks remain?," International Finance Discussion Papers 633, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  7. Shang-Jin Wei & Eswar Prasad, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows," IMF Working Papers 05/79, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Yin-Wong Cheung & Menzie D. Chinn & Eiji Fujii, 2005. "Why the renminbi might be overvalued (but probably isn’t)," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  9. Yongzheng Yang & Rod Tyers, 2001. "The Asian Crisis and Economic Change in China," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 52(4), pages 491-510.
  10. Rod Tyers & Yongzheng Yang, 2000. "Weathering the Asian Crisis: The Role of China," Asia Pacific Economic Papers 308, Australia-Japan Research Centre, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. Wei, Shang-Jin & Zeckhauser, Richard J., 1998. "Two crises and two Chinas," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 359-369, July.
  12. Chou, W. L. & Shih, Y. C., 1998. "The Equilibrium Exchange Rate of the Chinese Renminbi," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 165-174, March.
  13. Ivan Roberts & Rod Tyers, 2003. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: The Case for Greater Flexibility," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(2), pages 155-184, 06.
  14. Corden, W Max, 1993. "Exchange Rate Policies for Developing Countries," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 103(416), pages 198-207, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Rod Tyers & Jane Golley, 2007. "China’s Real Exchange Rate," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2007-479, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
  2. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2004. "What Accounts for China's Trade Balance Dynamics?," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  3. Rod Tyers & Ying Zhang, 2010. "Appreciating the Renminbi," CAMA Working Papers 2010-30, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  4. Rod Tyers & Iain Bain, 2008. "American And European Financial Shocks: Implications For Chinese Economic Performance," CAMA Working Papers 2008-08, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  5. Korhonen, Iikka & Ritola, Maria, 2009. "Renminbi misaligned - Results from meta-regressions," BOFIT Discussion Papers 13/2009, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  6. Tyers, Rod & Golley, Jane, 2008. "China’s Real Exchange Rate Puzzle," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 547-574.
  7. Rod Tyers, 2014. "International Effects of China’s Rise and Transition: Neoclassical and Keynesian Perspectives," CAMA Working Papers 2014-05, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  8. Rod TYERS, 2013. "China and Global Macroeconomic Interdependence," CAMA Working Papers 2013-34, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  9. Zhang, Yin & Wan, Guanghua, 2008. "Correcting China's trade imbalance: Monetary means will not suffice," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 505-521.
  10. Bernd Schnatz, 2011. "Global Imbalances And The Pretence Of Knowing Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(5), pages 604-615, December.

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