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Die japanischen Lehren für die europäische Krise

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  • Gunther Schnabl

    (University of Leipzig)

Abstract

Japan hat nicht nur 15 Jahre vor Europa einen Boom-und-Krisen-Zyklus durchschritten, sondern auch wichtige Erfahrungen mit Krisentherapien in Form von monetärer Lockerung, expansiver Finanzpolitik und Rekapitalisierung von Finanzinstituten gemacht. Japan hat die Nullzinsgrenze bereits 1999 erreicht und eine Staatsverschuldung in Rekordhöhe angehäuft. Das Papier vergleicht die Boom-und- Krisen-Zyklen in Japan und Europa hinsichtlich der Ursachen, des Krisenverlaufs, der Krisentherapien und der Wirkung der Krisentherapien. Als Folgen einer auf expansiver Geld- und Finanzpolitik basierenden Krisentherapie werden die Hysterese der Niedrigzins- und Hochverschuldungsfalle, das Aussetzen der Allokations- und Signalfunktion des Zinses, die graduelle Verstaatlichung des Finanzsektors und der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Nachfrage sowie graduelle reale Einkommensverluste abgeleitet. Die wirtschaftspolitische Implikation für Europa und Japan ist der konsequente Ausstieg aus der expansiven Geld- und Finanzpolitik trotz hoher Anpassungskosten.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena in its series Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series with number 2012-36.

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Date of creation: 2012
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Handle: RePEc:hlj:hljwrp:36-2012

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Web page: http://www.gfinm.de

Related research

Keywords: Japan; Europa; Bubble Economy; Europäische Schuldenkrise; Niedrigzinspolitik; Stagnation;

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References

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  1. Hans-Werner Sinn & Timo Wollmershaeuser, 2011. "Target Loans, Current Account Balances and Capital Flows: The ECB’s Rescue Facility," NBER Working Papers 17626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Daisuke Ishikawa & Yoshiro Tsutsui, 2006. "Has the Credit Crunch Occurred in Japan in 1990s?," Discussion papers, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) 06012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  3. Gunther Schnabl & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2013. "Fiscal Divergence and Current Account Imbalances in Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo Group Munich 4108, CESifo Group Munich.
  4. Rishi Goyal & Ronald McKinnon, 2003. "Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 339-363, 03.
  5. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Vagabonding Liquidity and Bursting Bubbles in New and Emerging Markets – An Overinvestment View," CESifo Working Paper Series, CESifo Group Munich 2100, CESifo Group Munich.
  6. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia: Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 7(2), pages 169-201, 07.
  7. Gunther Schnabl & Stephan Freitag, 2012. "Determinants of Global and Intra-European Imbalances," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena 25-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  8. Andreas Hoffmann & Gunther Schnabl, 2011. "National Monetary Policy, Internatinal Economic Instability and Feeback Effects - An Overinvestment View," Global Financial Markets Working Paper Series, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena 19-2011, Friedrich-Schiller-University Jena.
  9. Sekine, Toshitaka & Kobayashi, Keiichiro & Saita, Yumi, 2003. "Forbearance Lending: The Case of Japanese Firms," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 21(2), pages 69-92, August.
  10. Abad, José & Löffler, Axel & Schnabl, Gunther & Zemanek, Holger, 2012. "Fiscal divergence, current account and TARGET2 imbalances in the EMU," Working Papers, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science 105, University of Leipzig, Faculty of Economics and Management Science.
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Cited by:
  1. Michael Schubert & Sebastian Watzka & Jörg Hinze & Leon Leschus & Gunther Schnabl, 2012. "Leitzinssenkung auf historischem Allzeittief: Welche Folgen hat die Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(16), pages 3-19, 08.

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