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A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China

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Author Info
Marvin Goodfriend
Eswar Prasad

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Abstract

As the Chinese economy becomes more market based and continues its rapid integration into the global economy, having an independent and effective monetary policy regime oriented to domestic objectives will become increasingly important. Employing modern principles of monetary policy in light of the current state of China's financial institutions, we motivate and present a package of proposals to guide the operation of a new monetary policy regime. Specifically, we recommend an explicit low long-run inflation objective, operational independence for the People's Bank of China (PBC) with formal strategic guidance from the government, and a minimal set of financial sector reforms (to make the Chinese banking system robust against interest rate fluctuations). We argue that anchoring monetary policy with an explicit inflation objective would be the most reliable way for the PBC to tie down inflation expectations, and thereby enable monetary policy to make the best contribution to macroeconomic and financial stability, as well as economic growth. The management and monitoring of money (and credit) growth by the PBC would continue to play a useful role in the stabilization of inflation, but a money target would not constitute a good stand-alone nominal anchor. (JEL codes: E5 and P2) Copyright 2007, Oxford University Press.

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Publisher Info
Article provided by Oxford University Press in its journal CESifo Economic Studies.

Volume (Year): 53 (2007)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 2-41
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Handle: RePEc:oup:cesifo:v:53:y:2007:i:1:p:2-41

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Mark R. Stone, 2003. "Inflation Targeting Lite," IMF Working Papers 03/12, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  4. Alfred Broaddus & Marvin Goodfriend, 1996. "Foreign exchange operations and the Federal Reserve," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Win, pages 1-20. [Downloadable!]
  5. Oscar Landerretche & Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Does Inflation Targeting Make a Difference," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 106, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Eswar Prasad & Thomas Rumbaugh & Qing Wang, 2005. "Putting the Cart Before the Horse? Capital Account Liberalization and Exchange Rate Flexibility in China," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 05/1, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Corrinne Ho & Robert N. McCauley, 2003. "Living with flexible exchange rates: issues and recent experience in inflation targeting emerging market economies," BIS Working Papers 130, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  8. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 17(4), pages 145-166, Fall. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Eichengreen, Barry, 2004. "Chinese Currency Controversies," CEPR Discussion Papers 4375, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ronald McKinnon, 2006. "China's Exchange Rate Trap: Japan Redux?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 427-431, May. [Downloadable!]
  11. Eswar Prasad & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "The Chinese Approach to Capital Inflows: Patterns and Possible Explanations," IMF Working Papers 05/79, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  12. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "New Deal policies and the persistence of the Great Depression: a general equilibrium analysis," Working Papers 597, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  13. Richard Podpiera, 2006. "Progress in China's Banking Sector Reform: Has Bank Behavior Changed?," IMF Working Papers 06/71, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Marvin Goodfriend & Robert G. King, 1998. "The new neoclassical synthesis and the role of monetary policy," Working Paper 98-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 331-336, May. [Downloadable!]
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  16. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2005. "Law, finance, and economic growth in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 57-116, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  18. Alina Carare & Andrea Schaechter & Mark R. Stone & Marc Zelmer, 2002. "Establishing Initial Conditions in Support of Inflation Targeting," IMF Working Papers 02/102, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eswar S. Prasad, 2007. "Is the Chinese Growth Miracle Built to Last?," IZA Discussion Papers 2995, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  2. Maurice Obstfeld, 2007. "The Renminbifs Dollar Peg at the Crossroads," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-11, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Gunther Schnabl & Christian Danne, 2007. "A Role Model for China? Exchange Rate Flexibility and Monetary Policy in Japan," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Rodolfo Maino & Bernard Laurens, 2007. "China: Strengthening Monetary Policy Implementation," IMF Working Papers 07/14, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  5. Marvin Goodfriend, 2007. "Monetary Policy in East Asia: Common Concerns," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-18, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan. [Downloadable!]
  6. Yin-wong Cheung & Dickson Tam & Matthew S. Yiu, 2006. "Does the Chinese Interest Rate Follow the US Interest Rate?," Working Papers 192006, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Roland Straub & Christian Thimann, 2009. "The external and domestic side of macroeconomic adjustment in China," Working Paper Series 1040, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  8. Aaron Mehrotra & Tuomas Peltonen & Alvaro Santos Rivera, 2007. "Modelling inflation in China - a regional perspective," Working Paper Series 829, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  9. Lane, Philip R. & Schmukler, Sergio L., 2007. "The international financial integration of China and India," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4132, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Hongyi Chen & Lars Jonung & Olaf Unteroberdoerster, 2009. "Lessons for China from Financial Liberalization in Scandinavia," Working Papers 262009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alice Y. Ouyang & Ramkishen S. Rajan & Thomas D. Willett, 2007. "China as a Reserve Sink: The Evidence from Offset and Sterilization Coefficients," Working Papers 102007, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. [Downloadable!]
  12. Mehrotra , Aaron & Sánchez-Fung, José R., 2008. "Forecasting Inflation in China," BOFIT Discussion Papers 2/2008, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition. [Downloadable!]
  13. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Modernizing China’s Growth Paradigm," IZA Discussion Papers 2248, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  14. Philip Lane & Sergio Schmukler, 2007. "The Evolving Role of China and India in the Global Financial System," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 499-520, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Dong He & Laurent Pauwels, 2008. "What Prompts the People's Bank of China to Change its Monetary Policy Stance? Evidence from a Discrete Choice Model," Working Papers 0806, Hong Kong Monetary Authority. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  16. Robert Lafrance, 2008. "China's Exchange Rate Policy: A Survey of the Literature," Discussion Papers 08-5, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
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