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What Kind of Landing for the Chinese Economy?

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Author Info

  • Morris Goldstein

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

  • Nicholas R. Lardy

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

Rarely has the outlook for the Chinese economy been so contested. Th e fi nancial press widely quotes three alternative perspectives on the short- and medium-term outlook. One school argues that the Chinese government's recent eff orts to rein in overly rapid growth are working and that the economy is now on a glide path to what is referred to as a soft landing. While "soft landing" is usually not fully defi ned, its chief feature in this case is that Chinese economic growth slows modestly from its current pace of 9 to 10 percent to around 8 percent and that the rate of job creation does not slow enough to constitute a major political challenge for the regime. At the other end of the spectrum is the hard landing school, which argues that the authorities to date have not tightened suffi ciently, that loan and investment growth remain excessive, and that the authorities soon will be forced to take more drastic action that will trigger a sharp correction. Finally, the no landing school argues that China's eff orts to slow growth modestly are misguided since the economy was not overheating in 2003 and early 2004. In this view, China is in the early stages of a secular boom that has several additional years to run.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Policy Briefs with number PB04-07.

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Date of creation: Nov 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iie:pbrief:pb04-07

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Cited by:
  1. Qin, Duo & Song, Haiyan, 2009. "Sources of investment inefficiency: The case of fixed-asset investment in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 94-105, September.
  2. Duo Qin & Marie Anne Cagas & Pilipinas Quising & Xin-Hua He, 2005. "How Much Does Investment Drive Economic Growth in China?," Working Papers 545, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  3. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2006. "The Renminbi's Dollar Peg at the Crossroads," CEPR Discussion Papers 5771, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Marvin Goodfriend & Eswar Prasad, 2006. "A Framework for Independent Monetary Policy in China," IMF Working Papers 06/111, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Nouriel Roubini, 2006. "The BW 2 regime: an unstable disequilibrium bound to unravel," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 303-332, December.
  6. Prasad, Eswar, 2007. "Is the Chinese Growth Miracle Built to Last?," IZA Discussion Papers 2995, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Lee Branstetter & C. Fritz Foley, 2007. "Facts and Fallacies about U.S. FDI in China," NBER Working Papers 13470, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Lindbeck, Assar, 2006. "Economic-Social Interaction during China’s Transition," Working Paper Series 680, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
  9. Morris Goldstein & Nicholas R. Lardy, 2005. "China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity," Working Paper Series WP05-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  10. Prasad, Eswar & Rajan, Raghuram G., 2006. "Modernizing China's Growth Paradigm," IZA Discussion Papers 2248, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  11. Obstfeld, Maurice, 2006. "The Renminbi’s Dollar Peg at the Crossroads," Center for International and Development Economics Research, Working Paper Series qt7tw4142j, Center for International and Development Economics Research, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.

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