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Der Festkurs als merkantilistische Handelspolitik : Chinas Währungs- und Geldpolitik im Umfeld globaler Ungleichgewichte

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  • Schnabl, Gunther

Abstract

Der Druck auf die chinesische Regierung, die Wechselkursbindung des chinesischen Yuan an den US Dollar aufzugeben, ist groß. Seitdem der Dollar unter kontinuierlichem Abwertungsdruck steht, wird in den westlichen Industriestaaten Chinas Festkurs einer merkantilistischen Handelspolitik gleichgesetzt. Aus der Sicht Chinas erscheint der Festkurs hingegen vorteilhaft. Aufgrund der Dollarisierung internationaler Zahlungsströme in Ostasien und eines hohen Bestandes an Dollar-Auslandsvermögen trägt die Wechselkursbindung zur makroökonomischen Stabilität Chinas und ganz Ostasiens bei. Es bleibt die Gefahr der Inflation, die über den Festkurs importiert wird. Der Überhitzung könnten eine Aufwertung des Yuan oder eine restriktivere Finanz- und Geldpolitik in den USA entgegen wirken. -- The pressure on the Chinese government to appreciate the Chinese yuan is large. Since the start of the dollar?s sustained depreciation in early 2002 the western industrialized countries including Japan argue that China?s fixed peg is equivalent to a mercantilist trade policy. From the Chinese perspective the peg seems beneficial. Due to the dollarization of international capital flows in East Asia and due to high international assets denominated in US dollars, exchange rate stability against the US dollar contributes to macroeoconomic stability in China and East Asia as a whole. There remains the danger of overheating which is imported via the dollar parity. This threat of inflation could be curtailed by both a yuan appreciation or a more restrictive fiscal and monetary policy in the United States.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics in its series Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge with number 291.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:tuedps:291

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  1. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "Synchronised Business Cycles in East Asia and Fluctuations in the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1067-1088, 08.
  2. Schnabl, Gunther & Baur, Dirk, 2002. "Purchasing power parity: Granger causality tests for the yen-dollar exchange rate," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 425-444, December.
  3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear Of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408, May.
  4. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2003. "The East Asian Dollar Standard, Fear of Floating, and Original Sin," Working Papers 112003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  5. John Williamson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa60.
  6. Schnabl, Gunther, 2003. "China: a stabilizing or deflationary influence in East Asia?The problem of conflicted virtue," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 263, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  7. Michael Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2005. "An essay on the revived Bretton Woods system," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Feb.
  8. Rishi Goyal & Ronald McKinnon, 2003. "Japan's Negative Risk Premium in Interest Rates: The Liquidity Trap and the Fall in Bank Lending," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 339-363, 03.
  9. Kawai, Masahiro, 2002. "Exchange Rate Arrangements in East Asia: Lessons from the 1997-98 Currency Crisis," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 20(S1), pages 167-204, December.
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Cited by:
  1. Dymke, Björn M. & Walter, Andreas, 2006. "Insider trading in Germany: Do corporate insiders exploit inside information?," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 309, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  2. Rostek, Stefan & Schöbel, Rainer, 2006. "Risk preference based option pricing in a fractional Brownian market," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 299, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  3. Yalcin, Erdal, 2007. "The proximity-concentration trade-off in a dynamic framework," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 312, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  4. Heger, Diana & Zaby, Alexandra K., 2009. "The propensity to patent with vertically differentiated products: An empirical investigation," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 325, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  5. Zaby, Alexandra K., 2009. "The propensity to patent in oligopolistic markets," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 323, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  6. repec:hal:cesptp:halshs-00641280 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Brandes, Julia & Schüle, Tobias, 2007. "IMF's assistance: Devil's kiss or guardian angel?," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 310, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  8. Schüle, Tobias, 2006. "Creditor coordination with social learning and endogenous timing of credit decisions," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 307, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  9. Hager, Svenja & Schöbel, Rainer, 2006. "Deriving the dependence structure of portfolio credit derivatives using evolutionary algorithms," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 300, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  10. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Toubal, Farid, 2010. "Cultural proximity and trade," Munich Reprints in Economics 20351, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  11. Frontczak, Robert & Schöbel, Rainer, 2008. "Pricing American options with Mellin transforms," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 319, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  12. Frontczak, Robert & Schöbel, Rainer, 2009. "On modified Mellin transforms, Gauss-Laguerre quadrature, and the valuation of American call options," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 320, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  13. Heger, Diana & Zaby, Alexandra K., 2009. "The propensity to patent with horizontally differentiated products: An empirical investigation," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 324, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  14. Maier, Ramona & Merz, Michael, 2008. "Credibility theory and filter theory in discrete and continuous time," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 318, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.
  15. Frontczak, Robert, 2009. "Valuing options in Heston's stochastic volatility model: Another analytical approach," Tübinger Diskussionsbeiträge 326, University of Tübingen, School of Business and Economics.

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