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Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico

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Author Info
Steven B. Kamin
John H. Rogers

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Abstract

Since Mexico's devaluation of the peso in 1994, some observers have called for policies designed to keep the real exchange rate highly competitive in order to promote exports and output growth. However, over the past few decades, devaluations of the real exchange rate have been associated nearly exclusively with economic contraction, while real appreciations have been followed almost invariably by expansions in economic activity. The purpose of this paper is to attempt to disentangle the possible factors underlying this correlation--(1) reverse causation from output to the real exchange rate, (2) spurious correlation with third factors such as capital account shocks, and (3) temporary contractionary effects of devaluation--and determine whether, once those factors are accounted for, a positive, long-run effect of real depreciation on output can be identified in the data. Based on the results of a VAR model designed to explore the linkages between the real exchange rate and output, we conclude that even after sources of spurious correlation and reverse causation are controlled for, real devaluation has led to high inflation and economic contraction in Mexico. While changes in Mexico's economic structure and financial situation may qualify the future applicability of this conclusion, we view our findings as pointing to substantial risks to targeting the exchange rate at too competitive a level.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 580.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:580

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Keywords: Foreign exchange ; Mexico;

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Morley, Samuel A, 1992. "On the Effect of Devaluation during Stabilization Programs in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 21-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976. "Contractionary Effects of Devaluations," Working papers 191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  4. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1994. "Targeting the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 94/22, International Monetary Fund.
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  5. Kamin, Steven B. & Rogers, John H., 1996. "Monetary policy in the end-game to exchange-rate based stabilizations: the case of Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 285-307, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Martin Uribe, 1995. "Exchange-rate based inflation stabilization: the initial real effects of credible plans," International Finance Discussion Papers 503, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  7. Rogers, John H. & Wang, Ping, 1995. "Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 271-293, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kiguel, Miguel A., 1992. "Exchange rate policy, the real exchange rate, and inflation : lessons from Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 880, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Guillermo Calvo & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Under Imperfect Credibility - G. A. Calvo and C. A. Vegh," IMF Working Papers 91/77, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Rebelo, Sérgio, 1997. "What Happens When Countries Peg Their Exchange Rates? (The Real Side of Monetary Reforms)," CEPR Discussion Papers 1692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1995. "Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Working Papers 95/99, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1996. "The syndrome of exchange-rate-based stabilizations and the uncertain duration of currency pegs," International Finance Discussion Papers 548, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994-1), pages 253-316. [Downloadable!]
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