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Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico

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Author Info
Steven B. Kamin
John H. Rogers

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Abstract

Since Mexico's devaluation of the peso in 1994, some observers have called for policies designed to keep the real exchange rate highly competitive in order to promote exports and output growth. However, over the past few decades, devaluations of the real exchange rate have been associated nearly exclusively with economic contraction, while real appreciations have been followed almost invariably by expansions in economic activity. The purpose of this paper is to attempt to disentangle the possible factors underlying this correlation--(1) reverse causation from output to the real exchange rate, (2) spurious correlation with third factors such as capital account shocks, and (3) temporary contractionary effects of devaluation--and determine whether, once those factors are accounted for, a positive, long-run effect of real depreciation on output can be identified in the data. Based on the results of a VAR model designed to explore the linkages between the real exchange rate and output, we conclude that even after sources of spurious correlation and reverse causation are controlled for, real devaluation has led to high inflation and economic contraction in Mexico. While changes in Mexico's economic structure and financial situation may qualify the future applicability of this conclusion, we view our findings as pointing to substantial risks to targeting the exchange rate at too competitive a level.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 580.

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Date of creation: 1997
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Keywords: Foreign exchange Mexico

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Morley, Samuel A, 1992. "On the Effect of Devaluation during Stabilization Programs in LDCs," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 21-27, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. P. Krugman & L. Taylor, 1976. "Contractionary Effects of Devaluations," Working papers 191, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  4. Guillermo Calvo & Carmen Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1994. "Targeting the Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence," IMF Working Papers 94/22, International Monetary Fund.
    Other versions:
  5. Kamin, Steven B. & Rogers, John H., 1996. "Monetary policy in the end-game to exchange-rate based stabilizations: the case of Mexico," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 285-307, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  6. Martin Uribe, 1995. "Exchange-rate based inflation stabilization: the initial real effects of credible plans," International Finance Discussion Papers 503, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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  7. Rogers, John H. & Wang, Ping, 1995. "Output, inflation, and stabilization in a small open economy: Evidence from Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 271-293, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Kiguel, Miguel A., 1992. "Exchange rate policy, the real exchange rate, and inflation : lessons from Latin America," Policy Research Working Paper Series 880, The World Bank. [Downloadable!]
  9. Guillermo Calvo & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization Under Imperfect Credibility - G. A. Calvo and C. A. Vegh," IMF Working Papers 91/77, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Rebelo, Sérgio, 1997. "What Happens When Countries Peg Their Exchange Rates? (The Real Side of Monetary Reforms)," CEPR Discussion Papers 1692, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Alexander W. Hoffmaister & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1995. "Disinflation and the Recession-Now-Versus-Recession-Later Hypothesis: Evidence from Uruguay," IMF Working Papers 95/99, International Monetary Fund.
  12. Enrique G. Mendoza & Martin Uribe, 1996. "The syndrome of exchange-rate-based stabilizations and the uncertain duration of currency pegs," International Finance Discussion Papers 548, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
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  13. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  14. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1994-1), pages 253-316. [Downloadable!]
  15. Ben S. Bernanke, 1986. "Alternative Explanations of the Money-Income Correlation," NBER Working Papers 1842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hakan Berument & Onur Ince, 2005. "Effect of S&P500’s Return on Emerging Markets : Turkish Experience," Departmental Working Papers 0508, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. P Mejía-Reyes & D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Modelling Real Exchange Rate Effects on Output Performance in Latin America," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 35, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester. [Downloadable!]
  3. Ramkishen S. Rajan & Chung-Hua Shen, 2002. "Are crisis-induced devaluations contractionary?," Pacific Basin Working Paper Series 02-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
  4. Faruk Selçuk, 2005. "The Policy Challenge with Floating Exchange Rates: Turkey’s Recent Experience," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 295-312, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Shaghil Ahmed, 1999. "Sources of economic fluctuations in Latin America and implications for choice of exchange rate regimes," International Finance Discussion Papers 656, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  6. Shaghil Ahmed & Christopher J. Gust & Steven B. Kamin & Jonathan Huntley, 2002. "Are depreciations as contractionary as devaluations? A comparison of selected emerging and industrial economies," International Finance Discussion Papers 737, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Antonia López Villavicencio & Josep Lluís Raymond Bara, 2006. "The short and long-run determinants of the real exchange rate in Mexico," Working Papers wpdea0606, Department of Applied Economics at Universitat Autonoma of Barcelona. [Downloadable!]
  8. Magda Kandil, 2006. "On the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to the macroeconomy: Contrasting evidence for developing and developed countries," Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 15(1), pages 101-127, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1998. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," International Finance Discussion Papers 611, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  10. David Fernando López Angarita, 2006. "Nivel de reservas internacionales y riesgo cambiario en Colombia," Revista de Economía Institucional, Universidad Externado de Colombia - Facultad de Economía, vol. 8(15), pages 117-159, July-Dece. [Downloadable!]
  11. Alfonso Mendoza V., 2003. "The Inflation-Output Volatility Tradeoff and Exchange Rate Shocks in Mexico and Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 3(1), pages 27-51. [Downloadable!]
  12. A. E. Akinlo & A. F. Odusola, 2003. "Assessing the impact of Nigeria's naira depreciation on output and inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(6), pages 691-703, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Ida Aghdas Mirzaie & Magda E. Kandil, 2003. "The Effects of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Output and Prices: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 03/200, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  14. Hakan Berument & Nergiz Dinçer, 2005. "Denomination Composition of Trade and Trade Balance : Evidence from Turkey," Departmental Working Papers 0510, Bilkent University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. José R Sánchez-Fung, 2000. "Money Demand, PPP and Macroeconomic Dynamics in a Small Developing Economy," Studies in Economics 0015, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  16. Imed Drine & Christophe Rault, 2004. "The sources of Real Exchange Fluctuations in Developing Countries : an Econometric Investigation," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 2004-653, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan Stephen M. Ross Business School. [Downloadable!]
  17. Hakan Berument & N. Nergiz Dincer, 2004. "The effects of exchange rate risk on economic performance: the Turkish experience," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(21), pages 2429-2441, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  18. Hakan Berument & Zubeyir Kilinc, 2004. "The effect of foreign income on economic performance of a small-open economy: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 11(8), pages 483-488, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  19. Maier, Rolf, 2005. "External Debt and Pro-Poor Growth," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Kiel 2005 23, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics. [Downloadable!]
  20. Hideki Nishigaki, 2007. "The impact of the appreciation of East Asian currencies on global imbalance," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 6(42), pages 1-6. [Downloadable!]
  21. Ardic, Oya Pinar, 2006. "Output, the Real Exchange Rate, and the Crises in Turkey," MPRA Paper 6099, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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