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Real exchange rates and inflation in exchange-rate based stabilizations: an empirical examination

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  • Steven B. Kamin
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    Abstract

    Considerable research has focused on explaining why currencies appreciate in real terms after the nominal exchange rate is stabilized, but this research generally has taken a theoretical approach, and rarely has tested its hypotheses empirically. In this paper I estimate a simple error-correction model for Mexico, based on the Salter-Swan framework, in which inflation is determined by (1) the gap between the actual real exchange rate and the exchange rate that clears the market for non-traded goods, and (2) persistence effects of past inflation. Using this model, I decompose the excess of Mexican inflation in 1988-94 over peso-adjusted international inflation rates--that is, the real appreciation of the peso--into that part attributable to the initial undervaluation of the peso, that part explained by the subsequent expansion of domestic demand, and that part attributable to inertial inflation. The results indicate that the effects of inertial inflation in appreciating the real exchange rate were quite temporary, lasting only about a year after the stabilization of the peso in 1988. Of the real appreciation that took place between 1988 and 1994, about half was attributable to the expansion of domestic demand-which appreciated the equilibrium real exchange rate in the non-tradeables sector--and about half reflected the correction of the initial undervaluation of the real exchange rate relative to its equilibrium level in the non-tradeables sector. Finally, the paper uses the model to illustrate the impact of various prospective exchange rate policies on inflation and the real exchange rate in Mexico.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series International Finance Discussion Papers with number 554.

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    Date of creation: 1996
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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:554

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    Keywords: Foreign exchange rates ; Inflation (Finance);

    References

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    1. Sergio Rebelo & Carlos A. Vegh, 1995. "Real Effects of Exchange Rate-Based Stabilization: An Analysis of Competing Theories," NBER Working Papers 5197, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Gordon de Brouwer & Neil R. Ericsson, 1995. "Modelling Inflation in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9510, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    3. Sebastian Edwards, 1993. "Exchange Rates, Inflation and Disinflation: Latin American Experiences," NBER Working Papers 4320, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Jorge E. Roldós, 1995. "Supply-Side Effects of Disinflation Programs," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(1), pages 158-183, March.
    5. Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Stopping High Inflation," IMF Working Papers 91/107, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Martin Uribe, 1995. "Exchange-rate based inflation stabilization: the initial real effects of credible plans," International Finance Discussion Papers 503, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    7. Carlos A. Végh Gramont & Guillermo Calvo, 1993. "Stabilization Dynamics and Backward-Looking Contracts," IMF Working Papers 93/29, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Reinhart, Carmen M. & Vegh, Carlos A., 1995. "Nominal interest rates, consumption booms, and lack of credibility: A quantitative examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 357-378, April.
    9. Rodriguez, Carlos Alfredo, 1982. "The Argentine stabilization plan of December 20th," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 10(9), pages 801-811, September.
    10. T. W.Swan, 1960. "Economic Control In A Dependent Economy," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 36(73), pages 51-66, 03.
    11. Guillermo Calvo & Carlos A. Végh Gramont, 1991. "Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization under Imperfect Credibility," IMF Working Papers 91/77, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:
    1. Durevall, Dick & Loening, Josef L. & Birru, Yohannes A., 2010. "Inflation Dynamics and Food Prices in Ethiopia," Working Papers in Economics 478, University of Gothenburg, Department of Economics, revised 03 Jun 2013.
    2. Kamin, Steve B. & Rogers, John H., 2000. "Output and the real exchange rate in developing countries: an application to Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 85-109, February.
    3. Steven B. Kamin, 1998. "A multi-country comparison of the linkages between inflation and exchange rate competitiveness," International Finance Discussion Papers 603, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Frait, Jan & Komárek, Luboš, 2002. "Theoretical And Empirical Analysis Of The Debt-Adjusted Real Exchange Rate In Selected Transition Economies During 1994-2001," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 646, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    5. Steven B. Kamin & Marc Klau, 1998. "Some multi-country evidence on the effects of real exchange rates on output," International Finance Discussion Papers 611, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    6. Kamin, Steven B., 2001. "Real exchange rates and inflation in exchange-rate-based stabilizations: an empirical examination," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 237-253, February.

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