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Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market

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  • Takuji Fueki
  • Jouchi Nakajima
  • Shinsuke Ohyama
  • Yoichiro Tamanyu

Abstract

This paper proposes a simple but comprehensive structural vector autoregressive model to examine the underlying factors of oil price dynamics. The distinguishing feature is to explicitly assess the role of expectations about future aggregate demand and oil supply in addition to the traditional realized aggregate demand and supply factors. Our empirical analysis shows that identified future demand and supply shocks are as important as the traditional realized demand and supply shocks in explaining historical oil price fluctuations. The empirical result indicates that the influence of oil price changes on global output varies according to the nature of each shock.

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  • Takuji Fueki & Jouchi Nakajima & Shinsuke Ohyama & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2021. "Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 53-76, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:intfin:v:24:y:2021:i:1:p:53-76
    DOI: 10.1111/infi.12384
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    2. Peter Y. Jang & Mario G. Beruvides, 2020. "Time-Varying Influences of Oil-Producing Countries on Global Oil Price," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-22, March.
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    4. Umechukwu, Chisom & Olayungbo, D.O., 2022. "US oil supply shocks and economies of oil-exporting African countries: A GVAR-Oil Resource Analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    5. Henry Egbezien Inegbedion & Emmanuel Inegbedion & Eseosa Obadiaru & Abiola Asaleye, 2020. "Petroleum Subsidy Withdrawal, Fuel Price Hikes and the Nigerian Economy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(4), pages 258-265.
    6. Tii N. Nchofoung, 2023. "Oil price shocks and energy transition in Africa," Working Papers 23/064, European Xtramile Centre of African Studies (EXCAS).
    7. Krzysztof Echaust & Małgorzata Just, 2021. "Tail Dependence between Crude Oil Volatility Index and WTI Oil Price Movements during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(14), pages 1-21, July.
    8. Nathan Sussman & Osnat Zohar, 2016. "Has Inflation Targeting Become Less Credible? Oil Prices, Global Aggregate Demand and Inflation Expectations during the Global Financial Crisis," Bank of Israel Working Papers 2016.13, Bank of Israel.
    9. Gkillas, Konstantinos & Manickavasagam, Jeevananthan & Visalakshmi, S., 2022. "Effects of fundamentals, geopolitical risk and expectations factors on crude oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    10. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2020. "Oil price shocks, fuel subsidies and macroeconomic (in)stability in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 105464, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Yao Axel Ehouman, 2020. "Do oil-market shocks drive global liquidity?," EconomiX Working Papers 2020-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    12. De, Kuhelika & Compton, Ryan A. & Giedeman, Daniel C., 2022. "Oil shocks and the U.S. economy in a data-rich model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    13. Considine, Jennifer & Hatipoglu, Emre & Aldayel, Abdullah, 2022. "The sensitivity of oil price shocks to preexisting market conditions: A GVAR analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    14. Even Comfort Hvinden, 2019. "OPEC's crude game," Working Papers No 10/2019, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    15. Sakib Bin Amin & Noshin Nawal Audry & Ahmed Farah Ulfat, 2021. "The Nexus Between Oil Price Shock and the Exchange Rate in Bangladesh," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(2), pages 427-435.
    16. Andrew Filardo & Jacopo Lombardi & Carlos Montoro, 2018. "Monetary policy spillovers, global commodity prices and cooperation," BIS Working Papers 696, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2021. "Forecasting crude oil real prices with averaging time-varying VAR models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    18. Piersanti, Giovanni & Piersanti, Mirko & Cicone, Antonio & Canofari, Paolo & Di Domizio, Marco, 2020. "An inquiry into the structure and dynamics of crude oil price using the fast iterative filtering algorithm," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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