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Do financial investors destabilize the oil price?

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  • Lombardi, Marco J.
  • Van Robays, Ine

Abstract

In this paper, we assess whether and to what extent financial activity in the oil futures markets has contributed to destabilize oil prices in recent years. We define a destabilizing financial shock as a shift in oil prices that is not related to current and expected fundamentals, and thereby distorts efficient pricing in the oil market. Using a structural VAR model identified with sign restrictions, we disentangle this non-fundamental financial shock from fundamental shocks to oil supply and demand to determine their relative importance. We find that financial investors in the futures market can destabilize oil spot prices, although only in the short run. Moreover, financial activity appears to have exacerbated the volatility in the oil market over the past decade, particularly in 2007-2008. However, shocks to oil demand and supply remain the main drivers of oil price swings. JEL Classification: C32, Q41, Q31

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Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1346.

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Date of creation: Jun 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111346

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Keywords: Oil Price; sign restrictions; Speculation; Structural VAR;

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  1. Gert Peersman & Ine Van Robays, 2009. "Oil and the Euro area economy," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 24, pages 603-651, October.
  2. Lutz Kilian & Daniel P. Murphy, 2012. "Why Agnostic Sign Restrictions Are Not Enough: Understanding The Dynamics Of Oil Market Var Models," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 10(5), pages 1166-1188, October.
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