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Commodity Prices, Convenience Yields, and Inflation

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Author Info

  • Nikolay Gospodinov

    (Concordia University and CIREQ)

  • Serena Ng

    (Columbia University)

Abstract

This paper provides evidence that the two leading principal components in a panel of 23 commodity convenience yields have statistically and quantitatively important predictive power for inflation even after controlling for unemployment gap and oil prices. The results hold up in out-of-sample forecasts, across forecast horizons, and across G7 countries. The convenience yields also explain commodity prices and can be seen as informational variables about future economic conditions as conveyed by the futures markets. A bootstrap procedure for conducting inference when the principal components are used as regressors is also proposed. © 2013 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

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File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/REST_a_00242
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by MIT Press in its journal Review of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 95 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Pages: 206-219

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Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:95:y:2013:i:1:p:206-219

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Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/

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Related research

Keywords: bootstrap principal components; commodity futures; inflation predictability;

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Cited by:
  1. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2011. "Macro factors in oil futures returns," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11663, Paris Dauphine University.
  2. Ron Alquist & Olivier Coibion, 2013. "The Comovement in Commodity Prices," IMF Working Papers 13/140, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Revisiting the excess co-movements of commodity prices in a data-rich environment," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/6800, Paris Dauphine University.
  4. Gutierrez, Luciano, 2011. "Looking for Rational Bubbles in Agricultural Commodity Markets," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 120377, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Toni Beutler, 2012. "Forecasting Exchange Rates with Commodity Convenience Yields," Working Papers 12.03, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  6. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures Trading and the Excess Comovement of Commodity Prices," Working Papers halshs-00793724, HAL.
  7. Sévi, Benoît & Chevallier, Julien, 2013. "A Fear Index to Predict Oil Futures Returns," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11714, Paris Dauphine University.
  8. repec:ipg:wpaper:19 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2013. "Monetary policy surprises, positions of traders, and changes in commodity futures prices," Working Paper 2013-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  10. Daskalaki, Charoula & Kostakis, Alexandros & Skiadopoulos, George, 2014. "Are there common factors in individual commodity futures returns?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 346-363.
  11. Sílvia Gonçalves & Benoit Perron, 2012. "Bootstrapping factor-augmented regression models," CIRANO Working Papers 2012s-12, CIRANO.
  12. Ron Alquist & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 20003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Sévi, Benoît & Le Pen, Yannick & Chevallier, Julien & Bunn, Derek, 2013. "Fundamental and Financial Influences on the Co-movement of Oil and Gas Prices," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/11692, Paris Dauphine University.
  14. West, Kenneth D. & Wong, Ka-Fu, 2014. "A factor model for co-movements of commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 289-309.

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