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Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?

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  • Ratti, Ronald A
  • Vespignani, Joaquin L.

Abstract

There have been substantial increases in liquidity in recent years and real oil prices have almost returned to the high levels achieved before the Global financial crisis. Unanticipated increases in global real M2 lead to statistically significant increases in real oil prices. The cumulative impact of global real M2 on the real price of crude oil is important in the recovery of oil price over 2009 to 2011.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43777.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43777

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Keywords: Keywords: Oil Price; Global Liquidity;

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  1. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2002. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2001, Volume 16, pages 137-198 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Max Gillman & Anton Nakov, 2009. "Monetary effects on nominal oil prices," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0928, Banco de Espa�a.
  3. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Working Papers 11-15, Bank of Canada.
  4. Alessio Anzuini & Marco J. Lombardi & Patrizio Pagano, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 851, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Reuven Glick & Sylvain Leduc, 2011. "Central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets," Working Paper Series 2011-30, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  6. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2010. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of asset price adjustment: A global view," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1933-1945, August.
  7. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
  8. James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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Cited by:
  1. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Commodity Prices and BRIC and G3 Liquidity: A SFAVEC Approach," Working Papers 17096, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 09 Jan 2013.
  2. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A, 2013. "International monetary transmission to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China," MPRA Paper 45844, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Oil prices and the economy: A global perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2014-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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