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Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?

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  • Ratti, Ronald A
  • Vespignani, Joaquin L.

Abstract

There have been substantial increases in liquidity in recent years and real oil prices have almost returned to the high levels achieved before the Global financial crisis. Unanticipated increases in global real M2 lead to statistically significant increases in real oil prices. The cumulative impact of global real M2 on the real price of crude oil is important in the recovery of oil price over 2009 to 2011.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 43777.

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Date of creation: 01 Dec 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:43777

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Keywords: Keywords: Oil Price; Global Liquidity;

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  1. Max Gillman & Anton Nakov, 2009. "Monetary effects on nominal oil prices," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0928, Banco de Espa�a.
  2. Glick, Reuven & Leduc, Sylvain, 2012. "Central bank announcements of asset purchases and the impact on global financial and commodity markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2078-2101.
  3. Ron Alquist & Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Forecasting the price of oil," International Finance Discussion Papers 1022, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. A. Anzuini & M. J. Lombardi & P. Pagano, 2013. "The Impact of Monetary Policy Shocks on Commodity Prices," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 125-150, September.
  5. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
  7. James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2010. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of asset price adjustment: A global view," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1933-1945, August.
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Cited by:
  1. Vespignani, Joaquin L. & Ratti, Ronald A., 2013. "International monetary transmission to the Euro area: Evidence from the U.S., Japan and China," MPRA Paper 49707, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Commodity Prices and BRIC and G3 Liquidity: A SFAVEC Approach," Working Papers 17096, University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance, revised 09 Jan 2013.
  3. Ronald A. Ratti & Joaquin L. Vespignani, 2014. "Oil prices and the economy: A global perspective," CAMA Working Papers 2014-41, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

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