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Monetary Effects on Nominal Oil Prices

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Author Info

  • Gillman, Max

    () (Cardiff Business School)

  • Nakov, Anton

Abstract

The paper presents a theory of nominal asset prices for competitively owned oil. Focusing on monetary effects, with flexible oil prices the US dollar oil price should follow the aggregate US price level. But with rigid nominal oil prices, the nominal oil price jumps proportionally to nominal interest rate increases. We find evidence for structural breaks in the nominal oil price that are used to illustrate the theory of oil price jumps. The evidence also indicates strong Granger causality of the oil price by US inflation as is consistent with the theory.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section in its series Cardiff Economics Working Papers with number E2008/15.

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Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2008
Date of revision: Nov 2009
Publication status: Published in North American Journal of Economics and Finance, December 2009, Vol 20, Issue 3, pp. 239-254
Handle: RePEc:cdf:wpaper:2008/15

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Web page: http://business.cardiff.ac.uk/research/academic-sections/economics/working-papers
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Related research

Keywords: oil prices; inflation; cash-in-advance; multiple structural breaks; Granger causality;

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References

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  1. S. Rebelo., 2010. "Real Business Cycle Models: Past, Present, and Future," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 10.
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  5. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
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  8. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-48, April.
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  10. Benk, Szilárd & Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2007. "Money Velocity in an Endogenous Growth Business Cycle with Credit Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2007/14, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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  12. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-69, June.
  13. Ben S. Bernanke & Frederic S. Mishkin, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A New Framework for Monetary Policy?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 97-116, Spring.
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  16. Gillman, Max & Kejak, Michal, 2005. "Inflation and Balanced-Path Growth with Alternative Payment Mechanisms," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2005/15, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
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  18. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  19. Robert B. Barsky & Lutz Kilian, 2001. "Do We Really Know that Oil Caused the Great Stagflation? A Monetary Alternative," NBER Working Papers 8389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Ohanian, Lee E., 1988. "The spurious effects of unit roots on vector autoregressions : A Monte Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 251-266, November.
  21. Gray, Jo Anna, 1978. "On Indexation and Contract Length," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(1), pages 1-18, February.
  22. George Kapetanios, 2002. "Unit Root Testing against the Alternative Hypothesis of up to m Structural Breaks," Working Papers 469, Queen Mary, University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  23. Robert E. Lucas & Jr., 1967. "Adjustment Costs and the Theory of Supply," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75, pages 321.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Benhmad, François, 2012. "Modeling nonlinear Granger causality between the oil price and U.S. dollar: A wavelet based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1505-1514.
  2. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2011. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 8388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Lutz Kilian & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2011. "Nonlinearities in the oil price-output relationship," International Finance Discussion Papers 1013, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  4. Alessio Anzuini & Marco J. Lombardi & Patrizio Pagano, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 851, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  5. Ratti, Ronald A & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2012. "Why are crude oil prices high when global activity is weak?," MPRA Paper 43777, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Anton Nakov & Andrea Pescatori, 2007. "Inflation-output gap trade-off with a dominant oil supplier," Working Paper 0710, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

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