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Why crude oil prices are high when global activity is weak?

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Abstract

There have been substantial increases in liquidity in recent years and real oil prices have almost returned to the high levels achieved before the Global financial crisis. Unanticipated increases in global real M2 lead to statistically significant increases in real oil prices. The cumulative impact of global real M2 on the real price of crude oil is important in the recovery of oil price during 2009 and 2010.

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File URL: http://eprints.utas.edu.au/16298/1/2013-01_DP_Vespignani.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Tasmania, School of Economics and Finance in its series Working Papers with number 2013-01.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 20 Mar 2013
Date of revision: 20 Mar 2013
Publication status: Published by the University of Tasmania. Discussion paper 2013-01
Handle: RePEc:tas:wpaper:16298

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Keywords: Oil Price; Global Liquidity;

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  1. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth & Ralph Setzer, 2009. "Liquidity and the Dynamic Pattern of Asset Price Adjustment: A Global View," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 933, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Alessio Anzuini & Marco J. Lombardi & Patrizio Pagano, 2012. "The impact of monetary policy shocks on commodity prices," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 851, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  3. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. James D. Hamilton, 2011. "Historical Oil Shocks," NBER Working Papers 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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