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Oil Prices and the Global Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Rabah Arezki
  • Zoltan Jakab
  • Mr. Douglas Laxton
  • Mr. Akito Matsumoto
  • Armen Nurbekyan
  • Hou Wang
  • Jiaxiong Yao

Abstract

This paper presents a simple macroeconomic model of the oil market. The model incorporates features of oil supply such as depletion, endogenous oil exploration and extraction, as well as features of oil demand such as the secular increase in demand from emerging-market economies, usage efficiency, and endogenous demand responses. The model provides, inter alia, a useful analytical framework to explore the effects of: a change in world GDP growth; a change in the efficiency of oil usage; and a change in the supply of oil. Notwithstanding that shale oil production today is more responsive to prices than conventional oil, our analysis suggests that an era of prolonged low oil prices is likely to be followed by a period where oil prices overshoot their long-term upward trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Rabah Arezki & Zoltan Jakab & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Akito Matsumoto & Armen Nurbekyan & Hou Wang & Jiaxiong Yao, 2017. "Oil Prices and the Global Economy," IMF Working Papers 2017/015, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2017/015
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Fédéric Holm-Hadulla & Kirstin Hubrich, 2017. "Macroeconomic Implications of Oil Price Fluctuations : A Regime-Switching Framework for the Euro Area," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-063, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    5. Daniel Santabárbara, 2017. "The oil market: recent developments and outlook," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    6. Apergis, Nicholas, 2019. "Oil prices and corporate high-yield spreads: Evidence from panels of nonenergy and energy European firms," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 34-40.
    7. Considine, Jennifer & Hatipoglu, Emre & Aldayel, Abdullah, 2022. "The sensitivity of oil price shocks to preexisting market conditions: A GVAR analysis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 27(C).
    8. Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Kollmann, Robert & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2019. "Euro Area and US external adjustment: The role of commodity prices and Emerging Market shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 183-205.
    9. Salisu, Afees A. & Adediran, Idris & Omoke, Philip C. & Tchankam, Jean Paul, 2023. "Gold and tail risks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    10. Cristina Conflitti & Riccardo Cristadoro, 2018. "Oil prices and inflation expectations," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 423, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    11. Maria Sole Pagliari & Mrs. Swarnali A Hannan, 2017. "The Volatility of Capital Flows in Emerging Markets: Measures and Determinants," IMF Working Papers 2017/041, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2017. "Trade Linkages and Transmission of Oil Price Fluctuations in a Model Incorporating Monetary Variables," ADBI Working Papers 777, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    13. Shalva Mkhatrishvili & Douglas Laxton & Tamta Sopromadze & Mariam Tchanturia & Ana Nizharadze & Sergo Gadelia & Giorgi Gigineishvili & Jared Laxton, 2024. "Core Inflation Requiem: Paving the Way for a Dual-Component CPI in FPAS Central Banks," NBG Working Papers 01/2024, National Bank of Georgia.
    14. van der Ploeg, Frederick & Rezai, Armon, 2020. "The risk of policy tipping and stranded carbon assets," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    15. Daniel Santabárbara, 2017. "Evolución reciente y perspectivas del mercado de petróleo," Boletín Económico, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    16. Krystyna Gomółka & Piotr Kasprzak, 2022. "Household Ability of Expenditures on Electricity and Energy Resources in the Countries That Joined the EU after 2004," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(9), pages 1-21, April.
    17. Takuji Fueki & Jouchi Nakajima & Shinsuke Ohyama & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2021. "Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 53-76, April.
    18. Izabela Pruchnicka-Grabias, 2021. "The Relationship between Gold and Brent Crude Oil Prices: An Unrestricted Vector Autoregression Approach," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 11(4), pages 276-282.
    19. Filippidis, Michail & Filis, George & Kizys, Renatas, 2020. "Oil price shocks and EMU sovereign yield spreads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).

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