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The oil market: recent developments and outlook

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  • Daniel Santabárbara

Abstract

The past three years have seen a radical change in the structure of the oil market, as a result of the deep-seated transformation the US oil industry has undergone and of OPEC’s strategic reaction. This has translated into a substantial reduction in the price of oil. Specifically, this article analyses three key factors behind oil market developments in the past two years: the resilience of US shale oil production, the new turn in OPEC’S strategy to cut output and the slowdown in demand. Further, the medium and long-term outlook for this market is discussed, with the conclusion drawn that a marked rise in prices owing to the foreseeable course of supply and demand is not expected. While some fall-off in supply is contemplated owing to the decline in investment, demand, too, will be contained by greater efficiency in the use of oil-derived fuels and social awareness about their negative externalities.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Santabárbara, 2017. "The oil market: recent developments and outlook," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue SEP.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:journl:y:2017:i:9:d:aa:n:24
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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/InformesBoletinesRevistas/ArticulosAnaliticos/2017/T3/files/beaa1703-art24e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Mark Lasky, 2016. "The Outlook for U.S. Production of Shale Oil: Working Paper 2016-01," Working Papers 51599, Congressional Budget Office.
    2. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian, 2016. "Understanding the Decline in the Price of Oil since June 2014," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 131-158.
    3. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Policy Research Notes (PRNs) 94725, The World Bank.
    4. Mr. Rabah Arezki & Zoltan Jakab & Mr. Douglas Laxton & Mr. Akito Matsumoto & Armen Nurbekyan & Hou Wang & Jiaxiong Yao, 2017. "Oil Prices and the Global Economy," IMF Working Papers 2017/015, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Reda Cherif & Fuad Hasanov & Aditya Pande, 2021. "Riding the Energy Transition: Oil beyond 2040," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(1), pages 117-137, January.
    6. Jean-Marc Fournier & Isabell Koske & Isabelle Wanner & Vera Zipperer, 2013. "The Price of Oil – Will it Start Rising Again?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1031, OECD Publishing.
    7. Ryan A. Decker & Aaron Flaaen & Maria D. Tito, 2016. "Unraveling the Oil Conundrum : Productivity Improvements and Cost Declines in the U.S. Shale Oil Industry," FEDS Notes 2016-03-22, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Alejandro Badel & Joseph McGillicuddy, 2015. "Oil Prices: Is Supply or Demand Behind the Slump?," Economic Synopses, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue 8.
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    Cited by:

    1. Giulio Cifarelli and Paolo Paesani, 2021. "Navigating the Oil Bubble: A Non-linear Heterogeneous-agent Dynamic Model of Futures Oil Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    2. Cifarelli, Giulio & Paesani, Paolo, 2017. "On the difficulty of interpreting market behaviour in an uncertain world: the case of oil futures pricing between 2003 and 2016," MPRA Paper 84009, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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