Global Energy and Climate Outlook (GECO 2016) Road from Paris

This report examines the effects on greenhouse gases emissions and energy markets of a Reference scenario where current trends continue beyond 2020, of two scenarios where the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions have been included, and of a 2°C scenario in line with keeping global warming below the limits agreed in international negotiations. The report presents an updated version of the modelling work that supported by DG CLIMA in the UNFCCC negotiations that resulted in the Paris Agreement of the COP21 in December 2015. In the Reference scenario, emissions trigger global warming above 3°C. In the INDC scenarios, regions adopt domestic policies that result in global changes in emissions and energy use, and would result in the long term in a global warming around 3°C; the INDCs cover 28-44% of the cumulated emissions reductions necessary to remain below a 2°C warming. In the 2°C scenario, all regions realise domestic emission cuts to stay below 2°C, with various profiles in 2020-2050 depending on their national characteristics. Reduction of non-CO2 emissions (34% in 2030), energy efficiency (20%) and the deployment of renewable energies (20%) are the main options contributing in the mitigation effort. A significant number of regions draw economic benefits from shifting their expenditures on fossil energy imports to investments. GDP growth rates are marginally affected in most regions by global efforts to reduce emissions. Crucially, high growth rates are maintained in fast-growing low-income regions. Delaying actions to stay below 2°C add large economic costs. The analysis uses the POLES and GEM-E3 models in a framework where economic welfare is maximised while tackling climate change.