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Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks

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  • Kollmann, Robert
  • Giovannini, Massimo
  • Hohberger, Stefan
  • Ratto, Marco
  • Roeger, Werner
  • Vogel, Lukas

Abstract

The trade balances of the Euro Area (EA) and of the US have improved markedly after the Global Financial Crisis. This paper quantifies the drivers of EA and US economic fluctuations and external adjustment, using an estimated (1999-2017) three-region (US, EA, rest of world) DSGE model with trade in manufactured goods and in commodities. In the model, commodity prices reflect global demand and supply conditions. The paper highlights the key contribution of the post-crisis collapse in commodity prices for the EA and US trade balance reversal. Aggregate demand shocks originating in Emerging Markets too had a significant impact on EA and US trade balances. The broader lesson of this paper is that Emerging Markets and commodity shocks are major drivers of advanced countries’ trade balances and terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Kollmann, Robert & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2018. "Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 13141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13141
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    Cited by:

    1. Cardani, Roberta & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2023. "The COVID-19 recession on both sides of the Atlantic: A model-based comparison," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    2. Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    3. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(11), pages 3202-3245, November.
    4. Robert Kollmann, 2021. "Effects of Covid-19 on Euro area GDP and inflation: demand vs. supply disturbances," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 18(3), pages 475-492, July.
    5. Robert Kollmann, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a monetary union," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1581-1603.
    6. Kollmann, Robert, 2021. "Liquidity traps in a world economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    7. Cardani, Roberta & Hohberger, Stefan & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Vogel, Lukas, 2022. "Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    8. Gert Peersman, 2022. "International Food Commodity Prices and Missing (Dis)Inflation in the Euro Area," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 104(1), pages 85-100, March.
    9. Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "Financial spillover and global risk in a multi-region model of the world economy," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 185-218.
    10. Albonico, Alice & Calés, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Raciborski, Rafal, 2019. "Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-273.
    11. Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2023. "Drivers of large recessions and monetary policy responses," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    12. Werner Roeger & Paul J.J. Welfens, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Innovations: Transmission Dynamics of Persistent Demand and Technology Shocks in a Macro Model," EIIW Discussion paper disbei300, Universitätsbibliothek Wuppertal, University Library.
    13. Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2022. "The euro area’s pandemic recession: A DSGE-based interpretation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    14. Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2021. "The Euro Area's pandemic recession: A DSGE interpretation," Working Papers 2021-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Ea and us external adjustment; Commodity markets; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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