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Financialization in Commodity Markets

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  • V.V. Chari
  • Lawrence Christiano

Abstract

Recent experience has given rise to the financialization view: increased trading in commodity fu­tures markets leads to an increase in the level and volatility of spot prices. We construct a large panel data set which includes commodities with and without futures markets. The data do not support the financialization view. We also find that futures returns are positively correlated with open interest and not correlated with net financial flows. The facts on spot and futures prices and volume necessitate a new view, which we develop, of the economic role of futures markets. Our model is consistent with the key facts.

Suggested Citation

  • V.V. Chari & Lawrence Christiano, 2017. "Financialization in Commodity Markets," NBER Working Papers 23766, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23766
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    1. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Financialization and Structural Change in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 371-396, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jorge Lorca, 2021. "Capital Flows and Emerging Markets Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 898, Central Bank of Chile.
    2. Alonso-Alvarez, Irma & Di Nino, Virginia & Venditti, Fabrizio, 2022. "Strategic interactions and price dynamics in the global oil market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    3. Clio Ciaschini & Kateryna Tkach & Francesca Mariani & Maria Cristina Recchioni, 2019. "Speculative bubbles in agricultural commodity prices: detection and forecasting via market indicators," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 73(2), pages 63-73, April-Jun.
    4. Cyriac Guillaumin & Salem Boubakri & Alexandre Silanine, 2020. "Do commodity price volatilities impact currency misalignments in commodity-exporting countries?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1727-1739.
    5. Siklos, Pierre L., 2021. "The macroeconomic response to real and financial factors, commodity prices, and monetary policy: International evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(1).
    6. Husnu C. Dalgic, 2018. "Financial Dollarization in Emerging Markets: An Insurance Arrangement," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_051_2018, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    7. Boubakri, Salem & Guillaumin, Cyriac & Silanine, Alexandre, 2019. "Non-linear relationship between real commodity price volatility and real effective exchange rate: The case of commodity-exporting countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 212-228.
    8. Gent Bajraj & Andrés Fernández & Miguel Fuentes & Benjamín García & Jorge Lorca & Manuel Paillacar & Juan Marcos Wlasiuk, 2022. "Global Drivers and Macroeconomic Volatility in EMEs: a Dynamic Factor, General Equilibrium Perspective," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 963, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Marc Bohmann, 2020. "Price Discovery and Information Asymmetry in Equity and Commodity Futures Options Markets," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 1-2020.
    10. Christian Koziol & Tilo Treuter, 2019. "How do speculators in agricultural commodity markets impact production decisions and commodity prices? A theoretical analysis," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 25(3), pages 718-743, June.
    11. Don Bredin & Valerio Potì & Enrique Salvador, 2022. "Food Prices, Ethics and Forms of Speculation," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 179(2), pages 495-509, August.
    12. Chincarini, Ludwig B. & Moneta, Fabio, 2021. "The challenges of oil investing: Contango and the financialization of commodities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    13. Ibhagui, Oyakhilome, 2021. "Stock market and deviations from covered interest parity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    14. Sharma, Shahil & Rodriguez, Ivan, 2019. "The diminishing hedging role of crude oil: Evidence from time varying financialization," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 52.
    15. Takuji Fueki & Jouchi Nakajima & Shinsuke Ohyama & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2021. "Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 53-76, April.
    16. Tenreyro, Silvana & Drechsel, Thomas & McLeay, Michael, 2019. "Monetary policy for commodity booms and busts," CEPR Discussion Papers 14030, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E02 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Institutions and the Macroeconomy
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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