IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bis/biswps/726.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Residential investment and economic activity: evidence from the past five decades

Author

Listed:
  • Emanuel Kohlscheen
  • Aaron Mehrotra
  • Dubravko Mihaljek

Abstract

We analyse the evolution and main drivers of residential investment, using a panel with quarterly data for 15 advanced economies since the 1970s. Residential investment is a notably volatile component of real GDP in all countries in the sample. We find real house price growth, net migration inflows and the size of the existing housing stock to be significant drivers of residential investment across various model specifications. We also detect important asymmetries: interest rate increases affect residential investment more than interest rate cuts, and interest rate changes have larger effects on residential investment when its share in overall GDP is rising. Finally, we show that adding information on residential investment significantly improves the performance of standard recession prediction models.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuel Kohlscheen & Aaron Mehrotra & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2018. "Residential investment and economic activity: evidence from the past five decades," BIS Working Papers 726, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:726
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work726.pdf
    File Function: Full PDF document
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.bis.org/publ/work726.htm
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richhild Moessner, 2018. "Effects of asset purchases and financial stability measures on term premia in the euro area," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(43), pages 4617-4631, September.
    2. Juselius, Mikael & Takáts, Előd, 2018. "The enduring link between demography and inflation," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 8/2018, Bank of Finland.
    3. Morris A. Davis, 2010. "housing and the business cycle," The New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics,, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. Matthew Rognlie & Andrei Shleifer & Alp Simsek, 2018. "Investment Hangover and the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 113-153, April.
    5. Campbell, John Y. & Cocco, Joao F., 2007. "How do house prices affect consumption? Evidence from micro data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 591-621, April.
    6. Erceg, Christopher & Levin, Andrew, 2006. "Optimal monetary policy with durable consumption goods," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1341-1359, October.
    7. Claessens, Stijn & Kose, M. Ayhan & Terrones, Marco E., 2012. "How do business and financial cycles interact?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 178-190.
    8. Thomas Piketty & Gabriel Zucman, 2014. "Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries 1700–2010," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1255-1310.
    9. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    10. Silvana Tenreyro & Gregory Thwaites, 2016. "Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy Is Less Powerful in Recessions," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 8(4), pages 43-74, October.
    11. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, January.
    12. Monnet, Eric & Wolf , Clara, 2017. "Demographic cycles, migration and housing investment," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 38-49.
    13. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    14. Dante B Canlas & Johnny Noe E Ravalo & Eli M Remolona, 2018. "Do small bank deposits run more than large ones? Three event studies of contagion and financial inclusion," BIS Working Papers 724, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    16. Michela Scatigna & Robert Szemere & Kostas Tsatsaronis, 2014. "Residential property price statistics across the globe," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    17. Claudio Borio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learned and what are the policy implications?," Chapters, in: Ewald Nowotny & Doris Ritzberger-Grünwald & Peter Backé (ed.), Financial Cycles and the Real Economy, chapter 2, pages 10-35, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    18. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the monetary transmission mechanism," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 359-413.
    19. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
    20. Oriol Aspachs-Bracons & Pau Rabanal, 2011. "The Effects of Housing Prices and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(1), pages 225-274, March.
    21. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    22. Borio, Claudio, 2014. "The financial cycle and macroeconomics: What have we learnt?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 182-198.
    23. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    24. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
    25. Jonathan McCarthy & Richard Peach, 2002. "Monetary policy transmission to residential investment," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 8(May), pages 139-158.
    26. Edward E. Leamer, 2015. "Housing Really Is the Business Cycle: What Survives the Lessons of 2008–09?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(S1), pages 43-50, March.
    27. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    28. Joseph Vavra, 2014. "Inflation Dynamics and Time-Varying Volatility: New Evidence and an Ss Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(1), pages 215-258.
    29. Joshua D. Angrist & Òscar Jordà & Guido M. Kuersteiner, 2018. "Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 371-387, July.
    30. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Santiago Fernandez de Lis, 2008. "The Housing Boom and Bust in Spain: Impact of the Securitisation Model and Dynamic Provisioning," Working Papers 0806, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
    31. José Dorich & Nicholas Labelle St-Pierre & Vadym Lepetyuk & Rhys R. Mendes, 2018. "Could a higher inflation target enhance macroeconomic stability?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 51(3), pages 1029-1055, August.
    32. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-1370, November.
    33. Takuji Fueki & Jouchi Nakajima & Shinsuke Ohyama & Yoichiro Tamanyu, 2021. "Identifying oil price shocks and their consequences: The role of expectations in the crude oil market," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(1), pages 53-76, April.
    34. James M. Poterba, 1984. "Tax Subsidies to Owner-Occupied Housing: An Asset-Market Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 99(4), pages 729-752.
    35. Agnello, Luca & Schuknecht, Ludger, 2011. "Booms and busts in housing markets: Determinants and implications," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 171-190, September.
    36. Jane Dokko & Brian M. Doyle & Michael T. Kiley & Jinill Kim & Shane Sherlund & Jae Sim & Skander Van Den Heuvel, 2011. "Monetary policy and the global housing bubble [Assessing dynamic efficiency: theory and evidence]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 26(66), pages 237-287.
    37. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2018_008 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Tsoukis, Christopher & Westaway, Peter, 1994. "A forward looking model of housing construction in the UK," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 266-279, April.
    39. Filardo, Andrew J. & Siklos, Pierre L., 2020. "The cross-border credit channel and lending standards surveys," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, "undated". "An Empirical Stock-Flow Consistent Macroeconomic Model for Denmark," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_942, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Saparyanto & Moch. Najib Imanullah, 2022. "Ius Constituendum foreign fintech investment (post/after) employment law to accelerate Indonesian economic development," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 29(1), pages 223-230, March.
    3. Vladimir ŠIMIĆ & Lena MALEŠEVIĆ PEROVIĆ, 2022. "Relevance Of Type Of Investment For Growth: Evidence From Eu-10 Countries," Regional Science Inquiry, Hellenic Association of Regional Scientists, vol. 0(1), pages 105-115, June.
    4. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Richhild Moessner & Daniel M. Rees, 2024. "The shape of business cycles: A cross‐country analysis of Friedman's plucking theory," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 77(2), pages 351-370, May.
    5. Mikael Randrup Byrialsen & Hamid Raza, 2022. "Household debt and macroeconomic stability: An empirical stock‐flow consistent model for the Danish economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(1), pages 144-197, February.
    6. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Gabe J. de Bondt & Arne Gieseck, 2023. "Forecasting housing investment," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 543-565, April.
    7. repec:thr:techub:10029:y:2022:i:1:p:223-230 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Serhan Cevik & Sadhna Naik, 2024. "Bubble detective: City‐level analysis of house price cycles," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(1), pages 2-16, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2018. "Frontiers of macrofinancial linkages," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 95.
    2. Musso, Alberto & Neri, Stefano & Stracca, Livio, 2011. "Housing, consumption and monetary policy: How different are the US and the euro area?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 3019-3041, November.
    3. Stijn Claessens & M Ayhan Kose, 2017. "Asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes: a survey," BIS Working Papers 676, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Huang, Yuting & Li, Qiang & Liow, Kim Hiang & Zhou, Xiaoxia, 2020. "Is Housing the Business Cycle? A Multiresolution Analysis for OECD Countries," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    5. Fernández-Amador, Octavio, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Papers 1038, World Trade Institute.
    6. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    7. Homburg, Stefan, 2017. "A Study in Monetary Macroeconomics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198807537.
    8. Matteo Luciani, 2015. "Monetary Policy and the Housing Market: A Structural Factor Analysis," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(2), pages 199-218, March.
    9. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2010. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 125-164, April.
    10. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    11. Nan-Kuang Chen & Han-Liang Cheng & Ching-Sheng Mao, 2014. "Identifying and forecasting house prices: a macroeconomic perspective," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(12), pages 2105-2120, December.
    12. Octavio Fernández-Amador & Martin Gächter & Friedrich Sindermann, 2016. "Finance-augmented business cycles: A robustness check," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(1), pages 132-144.
    13. Schüler, Yves S. & Hiebert, Paul P. & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2020. "Financial cycles: Characterisation and real-time measurement," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    14. Rubio, Margarita, 2014. "Housing-market heterogeneity in a monetary union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 163-184.
    15. Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André K. & Herstad, Eyo I., 2019. "Residential investment and recession predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1790-1799.
    16. Bahadir, Berrak & Mykhaylova, Olena, 2014. "Housing market dynamics with delays in the construction sector," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 94-108.
    17. Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2014. "House prices, capital inflows and macroprudential policy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 337-355.
    18. Lambertini, Luisa & Mendicino, Caterina & Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2017. "Expectations-driven cycles in the housing market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 297-312.
    19. Bauer, Gregory H., 2017. "International house price cycles, monetary policy and credit," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 88-114.
    20. Rüth, Sebastian & Bachmann, Rüdiger, 2016. "Systematic Monetary Policy and the Macroeconomic Effects of Shifts in Loan-to-Value Ratios," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145826, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    housing markets; residential investment; house prices; business cycles; construction; interest rates; recession forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:726. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Christian Beslmeisl (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bisssch.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.