Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Expectations-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market

Contents:

Author Info

  • Luisa Lambertini
  • Caterina Mendicino
  • Maria Teresa Punzi

Abstract

Survey data suggests that news of changes in business conditions are significantly related to house prices and consumers' beliefs of favorable buying conditions in the housing market. This paper explores the transmission of "news shocks" as a source of boom-bust cycles in the housing market. News on shocks originated in different sectors of the economy can generate booms in the housing market in accordance with the average behavior in the data; expectations on monetary policy and inf ationary shocks that are not fullled can also lead to the observed subsequent macroeconomic recession. Investigating the role of the credit market for house market f luctuations we find that favorable credit conditions that are expected to be reversed in the near future generate boom-bust cycle dynamics in line with the most recent episode. Further, credit conditions also affect boom-bust cycles generated by news shocks originated in other sectors of the economy. In particular, lower loan-to-value ratios reduce the severity of expectations-driven cycles and the volatility of household debt, aggregate consumption and GDP.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cfcm/documents/papers/12-08.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) in its series Discussion Papers with number 12/08.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation:
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:not:notcfc:12/08

Contact details of provider:
Postal: School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD
Phone: (44) 0115 951 5620
Fax: (0115) 951 4159
Web page: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cfcm/index.aspx
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: boom-bust cycles; credit frictions; housing market.;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Morris A. Davis & Jonathan Heathcote, 2005. "Housing And The Business Cycle," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(3), pages 751-784, 08.
  2. Alessandro Calza & Tommaso Monacelli & Livio Stracca, 2013. "Housing Finance And Monetary Policy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 101-122, 01.
  3. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Lawrence Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary policy and stock market booms," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 85-145.
  5. Favara, Giovanni & Imbs, Jean, 2010. "Credit Supply and the Price of Housing," CEPR Discussion Papers 8129, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  6. Walentin, Karl, 2009. "Expectation Driven Business Cycles with Limited Enforcement," Working Paper Series 229, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Oct 2011.
  7. Ben Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
  8. Arce, Oscar & López-Salido, J David, 2008. "Housing Bubbles," CEPR Discussion Papers 6932, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Walentin, Karl & Sellin, Peter, 2010. "Housing collateral and the monetary transmission mechanism," Working Paper Series 239, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  10. Nutahara, Kengo, 2010. "Internal and external habits and news-driven business cycles," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 300-303, May.
  11. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2009. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in small open economies," Working Paper 2009/06, Norges Bank.
  12. Pedro Silos, 2005. "Housing, portfolio choice, and the macroeconomy," Working Paper 2005-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
  14. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can changes in expectations cause business cycle fluctuations in neo-classical settings?," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 458-477, July.
  15. Campbell, John Y., 1994. "Inspecting the mechanism: An analytical approach to the stochastic growth model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 463-506, June.
  16. Raf Wouters & Frank Smets, 2003. "Output gaps:theory versus practice," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 256, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2008. "What's News in Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 14215, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2003. "Stock Prices, News and Economic Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 3844, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Mendicino, Caterina, 2007. "Credit market and macroeconomic volatility," Working Paper Series 0743, European Central Bank.
  21. Robert Barsky, 2010. "News Shocks," 2010 Meeting Papers 95, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  22. Hashmat Khan & John Tsoukalas, 2012. "The Quantitative Importance of News Shocks in Estimated DSGE Models," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1535-1561, December.
  23. Caterina Mendicino & Andrea Pescatori, 2004. "Credit Frictions, housing prices and optimal monetary policy Rules," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0042, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  24. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider & Selale Tuzel, 2006. "Housing, Consumption, and Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 12036, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  25. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. KOBAYASHI Keiichiro & NAKAJIMA Tomoyuki & INABA Masaru, 2007. "Collateral Constraint and News-driven Cycles," Discussion papers 07013, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
  27. Monacelli, Tommaso, 2006. "New Keynesian Models, Durable Goods and Collateral Constraints," CEPR Discussion Papers 5916, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. L. Wade, 1988. "Review," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 99-100, July.
  29. Horvath, Michael, 2000. "Sectoral shocks and aggregate fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 69-106, February.
  30. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model," Staff Report 422, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  31. Den Haan, Wouter J. & Kaltenbrunner, Georg, 2009. "Anticipated growth and business cycles in matching models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(3), pages 309-327, April.
  32. Flodén, Martin, 2007. "Vintage Capital and Expectations Driven Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 6113, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. Duca, John V. & Muellbauer, John & Murphy, Anthony, 2010. "Housing markets and the financial crisis of 2007-2009: Lessons for the future," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 203-217, December.
  34. Tomura, Hajime, 2010. "International capital flows and expectation-driven boom-bust cycles in the housing market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1993-2009, October.
  35. José-Víctor Ríos-Rull & Virginia Sánchez-Marcos, 2008. "An Aggregate Economy with Different Size Houses," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(2-3), pages 705-714, 04-05.
  36. Nobuhiro Kiyotaki & Alexander Michaelides & Kalin Nikolov, 2011. "Winners and Losers in Housing Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 43, pages 255-296, 03.
  37. Meenakshi Basant Roi & Rhys R. Mendes, 2007. "Should Central Banks Adjust Their Target Horizons in Response to House-Price Bubbles?," Discussion Papers 07-4, Bank of Canada.
  38. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  39. Philip Lowe & Claudio Borio, 2002. "Asset prices, financial and monetary stability: exploring the nexus," BIS Working Papers 114, Bank for International Settlements.
  40. Christopher Otrok & Andre Kurmann, 2010. "News Shocks and the Slope of the Term Structure of Interest Rates," 2010 Meeting Papers 72, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  41. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-17, June.
  42. Christiano, Lawrence & Ilut, Cosmin & Motto, Roberto & Rostagno, Massimo, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0955, European Central Bank.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Verona , Fabio & Martins, Manuel M. F. & Drumond , Inês, 2013. "(Un)anticipated monetary policy in a DSGE model with a shadow banking system," Research Discussion Papers 4/2013, Bank of Finland.
  2. Jan K. Brueckner & Paul S. Calem & Leonard I. Nakamura, 2011. "Subprime mortgages and the housing bubble," Working Papers 11-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  3. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2013. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 19411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Sandra Gomes & Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "Housing Market Dynamics: Any News?," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/23, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  5. Caterina Mendicino & Maria Tereza Punzi, 2013. "Confidence and economic activity: the case of Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  6. Jan Bruha & Michal Hlavacek & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Impacts of housing prices on the financial position of households," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2012/2013, chapter 0, pages 120-127 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  7. Luisa Lambertini & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2011. "Leaning Against Boom-Bust Cycles in Credit and Housing Prices," Working Papers CELEG 1104, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
  8. Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2011. "Boom-bust cycles and stabilisation policy - monetary and macroprudential rules: a loss function approach," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 58-65 Bank for International Settlements.
  9. Caterina Mendicino, 2009. "Monetary Policy Expectations and Boom-Bust Cycles in the Housing Market," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  10. Caterina Mendicino & Maria Tereza Punzi, 2011. "Stabilization Policy and Boom-Bust Cycles - Monetary and Macro-Prudential Rules," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:not:notcfc:12/08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Hilary Hughes).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.