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Leaning Against Boom-Bust Cycles in Credit and Housing Prices

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  • Luisa Lambertini
  • Caterina Mendicino
  • Maria Tereza Punzi

Abstract

This paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro-prudential policies that lean against news-driven boom-bust cycles in housing prices and credit generated by expectations of future macroeconomic developments. First, we find no trade-off between the traditional goals of monetary policy and leaning against boom-bust cycles. An interest-rate rule that completely stabilizes inflation is not optimal. In contrast, an interest-rate rule that responds to financial variables mitigates macroeconomic and financial cycles and is welfare improving relative to the estimated rule. Second, counter-cyclical Loan-to-Value rules that respond to credit growth do not increase inflation volatility and are more effective in maintaining a stable provision of financial intermediation than interest-rate rules that respond to financial variables. Heterogeneity in the welfare implications for borrowers and savers make it difficult to rank the two policy frameworks.

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Paper provided by Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department in its series Working Papers with number w201108.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201108

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ignazio Visco, 2011. "Key issues for the success of macroprudential policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 129-135 Bank for International Settlements.
  2. M. Falagiarda & A. Saia, 2013. "Credit, Endogenous Collateral and Risky Assets: A DSGE Model," Working Papers wp916, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  3. Leonardo Gambacorta & Federico M Signoretti, 2013. "Should monetary policy lean against the wind? - an analysis based on a DSGE model with banking," BIS Working Papers 418, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Quint, Dominic & Rabanal, Pau, 2014. "Monetary and macroprudential policy in an estimated DSGE model of the Euro Area," Discussion Papers 2014/5, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
  5. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "Macroprudential regulation and policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 60, 3.
  6. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2013. "News Driven Business Cycles: Insights and Challenges," NBER Working Papers 19411, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Michael Funke & Michael Paetz, 2012. "A DSGE-based assessment of nonlinear loan-to-Value policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," Quantitative Macroeconomics Working Papers 21204, Hamburg University, Department of Economics.
  8. Paolo Angelini & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Ignazio Visco, 2012. "Macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policies: conflicts, complementarities and trade-offs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 140, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  9. Schmidt, Sebastian & Wieland, Volker, 2013. "The New Keynesian Approach to Dynamic General Equilibrium Modeling: Models, Methods and Macroeconomic Policy Evaluation," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  10. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
  11. F. Verona & M. M. F. Martins & I. Drumond, 2013. "(Un)anticipated Monetary Policy in a DSGE Model with a Shadow Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(3), pages 78-124, September.
  12. Gerlach, Petra & Merola, Rossana, 2013. "Consumption and Credit Constraints: A Model and Evidence for Ireland," Papers WP471, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
  13. Kenza Benhima, 2013. "Booms and Busts with dispersed information," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 13.11, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
  14. Diana Bonfim & Nuno Monteiro, 2013. "The implementation of the countercyclical capital buffer: rules versus discretion," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  15. Florina-Cristina Badarau & Alexandra Popescu, 2012. "Monetary Policy and Credit Cycles: A DSGE Analysis," Working Papers halshs-00828074, HAL.

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