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Macroprudential Policy in a Fisherian Model of Financial Innovation

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  • Javier Bianchi
  • Emine Boz
  • Enrique Gabriel Mendoza

Abstract

The interaction between credit frictions, financial innovation, and a switch from optimistic to pessimistic beliefs played a central role in the 2008 financial crisis. This paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium framework in which this interaction drives the financial amplification mechanism to study the effects of macroprudential policy. Financial innovation enhances the ability of agents to collateralize assets into debt, but the riskiness of this new regime can only be learned over time. Beliefs about transition probabilities across states with high and low ability to borrow change as agents learn from observed realizations of financial conditions. At the same time, the collateral constraint introduces a pecuniary externality, because agents fail to internalize the effect of their borrowing decisions on asset prices. Quantitative analysis shows that the effectiveness of macroprudential policy in this environment depends on the government's information set, the tightness of credit constraints, and the pace at which optimism surges in the early stages of financial innovation. The policy is least effective when the government is as uninformed as private agents, credit constraints are tight, and optimism builds quickly.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 60 (2012)
Issue (Month): 2 (July)
Pages: 223-269

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:60:y:2012:i:2:p:223-269

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References

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  1. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2010. "Overborrowing, Financial Crises and 'Macro-prudential' Taxes," NBER Working Papers 16091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Davis, Morris & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2005. "The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States," CEPR Discussion Papers 5333, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer & Robert Vishny, 2010. "Neglected Risks, Financial Innovation, and Financial Fragility," Working Papers 502, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  4. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G, 2010. "Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Javier Bianchi, 2009. "Overborrowing and systemic externalities in the business cycle," Working Paper 2009-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  6. Enrique G. Mendoza & Marco E. Terrones, 2008. "An Anatomy Of Credit Booms: Evidence From Macro Aggregates And Micro Data," NBER Working Papers 14049, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Timothy J. Kehoe & David K. Levine, 1992. "Debt constrained asset markets," Working Papers 445, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Benigno, Gianluca & Chen, Huigang & Otrok, Christopher & Rebucci, Alessandro & Young, Eric R, 2011. "Financial Crisis and Macro-Prudential Policies," CEPR Discussion Papers 8175, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  9. Nicola Gennaioli & Andrei Shleifer, 2010. "What Comes to Mind," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 125(4), pages 1399-1433, November.
  10. Marco Terrones & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2008. "An Anatomy of Credit Booms," IMF Working Papers 08/226, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Juan Pablo Medina Guzman & Jorge Roldos, 2014. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policies to Manage Capital Flows," IMF Working Papers 14/30, International Monetary Fund.
  2. Boz, Emine & Mendoza, Enrique G, 2010. "Financial Innovation, the Discovery of Risk, and the U.S. Credit Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7967, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. de la Torre, Augusto & Ize, Alain, 2013. "The foundations of macroprudential regulation : a conceptual roadmap," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6575, The World Bank.
  4. Lane, Philip R. & McQuade, Peter, 2013. "Domestic credit growth and international capital flows," Working Paper Series 1566, European Central Bank.
  5. Luisa Lambertini & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2011. "Leaning Against Boom-Bust Cycles in Credit and Housing Prices," Working Papers 201101, Center for Fiscal Policy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, revised Mar 2011.
  6. Javier Bianchi & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "Optimal Time-Consistent Macroprudential Policy," NBER Working Papers 19704, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 19362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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