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House Price Dynamics: Fundamentals and Expectations

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  • Eleonora Granziera
  • Sharon Kozocki
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    Abstract

    We investigate whether expectations that are not fully rational have the potential to explain the evolution of house prices and the price-to-rent ratio in the United States. First,a Lucas type asset-pricing model solved under rational expectations is used to derive a fundamental value for house prices and the price-rent ratio. Although the model can explain the sample average of the price-rent ratio, it does not generate the volatility and persistence observed in the data. Then, we consider an intrinsic bubble model and two models of extrapolative expectations developed by Lansing (2006, 2010) in applications to stock prices: one that features a constant extrapolation parameter and one in which the extrapolation coefficient depends on the dividend growth process. We show that these last two models are equally good at matching sample moments of the data. However, a counterfactual experiment shows that only the extrapolative expectation model with timevarying extrapolation coefficient is consistent with the run up in house prices observed over the 2000-2006 period and the subsequent sharp downturn.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Bank of Canada in its series Working Papers with number 12-12.

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    Length: 30 pages
    Date of creation: 2012
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-12

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    Related research

    Keywords: Asset pricing; Domestic demand and components; Economic models;

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    References

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    1. Christian Hott, 2007. "Explaining house price fluctuations," Proceedings 1055, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    2. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2012. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(1), pages 77 - 122.
    3. De Bondt, Werner P. M., 1993. "Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 355-371, November.
    4. Johannes Brumm & Michael GRILL & Felix KUBLER & Karl SCHMEDDERS, . "Collateral Requirements and Asset Prices," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 11-10, Swiss Finance Institute.
    5. Glaeser, Edward L. & Gyourko, Joseph & Saiz, Albert, 2008. "Housing supply and housing bubbles," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(2), pages 198-217, September.
    6. Fuster, Andreas & Herbert, Benjamin & Laibson, David I., 2011. "Natural Expectations, Macroeconomic Dynamics, and Asset Pricing," Scholarly Articles 10140029, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    7. Morris A. Davis & Robert F. Martin, 2005. "Housing, house prices, and the equity premium puzzle," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-13, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Brian Petereson, 2009. "Fooled by Search: Housing Prices, Turnover and Bubbles," Caepr Working Papers 2009-004, Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    9. Hey, John D., 1994. "Expectations formation: Rational or adaptive or ...?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 329-349, December.
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    Cited by:
    1. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "House prices, credit growth, and excess volatility: Implications for monetary and macroprudential policy," Working Paper 2012/08, Norges Bank.
    2. Luisa Lambertini & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Teresa Punzi, 2011. "Leaning Against Boom-Bust Cycles in Credit and Housing Prices," Working Papers 201101, Center for Fiscal Policy, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, revised Mar 2011.
    3. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing, 2013. "House prices, expectations, and time-varying fundamentals," Working Paper Series 2013-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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