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House Price Booms and the Current Account

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Author Info

  • Klaus Adam
  • Pei Kuang
  • Albert Marcet

Abstract

A simple open economy asset pricing model can account for the house price and current account dynamics in the G7 over the years 2001-2008. The model features rational households, but assumes that households entertain subjective beliefs about price behavior and update these using Bayes' rule. The resulting beliefs dynamics considerably propagate economic shocks and crucially contribute to replicating the empirical evidence. Belief dynamics can temporarily delink house prices from fundamentals, so that low interest rates can fuel a house price boom. House price booms, however, are not necessarily synchronized across countries and the model correctly predicts the heterogeneous response of house prices across the G7, following the fall in real interest rates at the beginning of the millennium. The response to interest rates depends sensitively on agents' beliefs at the time of the interest rate reduction, which are a function of the prior history of disturbances hitting the economy. According to the model, the US house price boom could have been largely avoided, if real interest rates had decreased by less after the year 2000.

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File URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/full/10.1086/663990
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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal NBER Macroeconomics Annual.

Volume (Year): 26 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 77 - 122

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:macann:doi:10.1086/663990

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Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/MA/

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References

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  1. Kiminori Matsuyama, 1990. "The Mathematical Appendix to Residential Investment and the Current Account," Discussion Papers 875, Northwestern University, Center for Mathematical Studies in Economics and Management Science.
  2. Charles Himmelberg & Christopher Mayer & Todd Sinai, 2005. "Assessing high house prices: bubbles, fundamentals, and misperceptions," Staff Reports 218, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Glaeser, Edward & Saiz, Albert & Gyourko, Joseph, 2008. "Housing Supply and Housing Bubbles," Scholarly Articles 2962640, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  4. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2009. "Momentum traders in the housing market: survey evidence and a search model," NBER Working Papers 14669, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. David Laibson & Johanna Mollerstrom, 2010. "Capital Flows, Consumption Booms and Asset Bubbles: A Behavioural Alternative to the Savings Glut Hypothesis," NBER Working Papers 15759, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2012. "Understanding booms and busts in housing markets," CQER Working Paper 2012-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  7. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
  8. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-40, August.
  9. Aizenman, Joshua & Jinjarak, Yothin, 2009. "Current account patterns and national real estate markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 75-89, September.
  10. Joseph Gyourko & Eduardo Morales & Charles Nathanson & Edward Glaeser, 2011. "Housing Dynamics," 2011 Meeting Papers 307, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  11. Hanno N. Lustig & Stijn G. Van Nieuwerburgh, 2005. "Housing Collateral, Consumption Insurance, and Risk Premia: An Empirical Perspective," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1167-1219, 06.
  12. Matsuyama, Kiminori, 1990. "Residential investment and the current account," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 137-153, February.
  13. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
  14. Bray, Margaret M & Savin, Nathan E, 1986. "Rational Expectations Equilibria, Learning, and Model Specification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(5), pages 1129-60, September.
  15. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2011. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," CEP Discussion Papers dp1059, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
  16. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet & Juan Pablo Nicolini, 2006. "Learning and Stock Market Volatility," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 15, Society for Computational Economics.
  17. Gete, Pedro, 2009. "Housing Markets and Current Account Dynamics," MPRA Paper 20957, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Feb 2010.
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  1. Near rational agents and house price booms
    by Economic Logician in Economic Logic on 2011-09-12 14:17:00
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