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Imperfect Knowledge About Asset Prices and Credit Cycles

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  • Pei Kuang
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    Abstract

    This paper develops an equilibrium model with a housing collateral constraint in which rational agents are uncertain about the collateral price process. Bayesian learning by agents can endogenously generate booms and busts in collateral prices and significantly strengthen the role of the collateral constraint as an amplification mechanism through the interaction of agents' price beliefs, price realizations and credit limits. Over-optimism or pessimism is fueled when a surprise in price expectations is interpreted partially by the agents as a permanent change in the parameters governing the collateral price process and is validated by subsequently realized prices. The learning model can quantitatively account for the recent US boom-bust cycle in house prices, household debt and aggregate consumption dynamics during 2001-2008. The paper also demonstrates that the leveraged economy with a higher steady state leverage ratio is more prone to self-inforcing learning dynamics.

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    File URL: ftp://ftp.bham.ac.uk/pub/RePEc/pdf/13-02R.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Birmingham in its series Discussion Papers with number 13-02r.

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    Length: 52 pages
    Date of creation: Nov 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:bir:birmec:13-02r

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    Postal: Edgbaston, Birmingham, B15 2TT
    Web page: http://www.economics.bham.ac.uk
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    Related research

    Keywords: Boom-Bust; Collateral Constraints; Learning; Leverage; Housing;

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    1. Justiniano, Alejandro & Primiceri, Giorgio E & Tambalotti, Andrea, 2013. "Household Leveraging and Deleveraging," CEPR Discussion Papers 9671, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    4. Matteo Iacoviello, 2005. "House Prices, Borrowing Constraints, and Monetary Policy in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(3), pages 739-764, June.
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    6. Klaus Adam & Pei Kuang & Albert Marcet, 2011. "House Price Booms and the Current Account," CEP Discussion Papers dp1064, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    7. Milani, Fabio, 2010. "Expectation Shocks and Learning as Drivers of the Business Cycle," CEPR Discussion Papers 7743, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Cordoba, Juan Carlos & Ripoll, Marla, 2010. "Credit Cycles Redux," Staff General Research Papers 32122, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
      • Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November.
    9. Klaus Adam & Albert Marcet, 2010. "Booms and Busts in Asset Prices," IMES Discussion Paper Series 10-E-02, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    10. Wiliam Branch & George W. Evans, . "Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2008-1, University of Oregon Economics Department.
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    15. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
    16. KevinX.D. Huang & Zheng Liu & Tao Zha, 2009. "Learning, Adaptive Expectations and Technology Shocks," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(536), pages 377-405, 03.
    17. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496, November.
    18. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2007. "Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence from an Estimated DSGE Model," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 659, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 23 Oct 2009.
    19. Eva Carceles Poveda & Chryssi Giannitsarou, 2006. "Asset pricing with adaptive learning," Computing in Economics and Finance 2006 25, Society for Computational Economics.
    20. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "House prices, credit growth, and excess volatility: implications for monetary and macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2012-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    21. Adam, Klaus & Marcet, Albert, 2011. "Internal rationality, imperfect market knowledge and asset prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 146(3), pages 1224-1252, May.
    22. Narayana R. Kocherlakota, 2000. "Creating business cycles through credit constraints," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Sum, pages 2-10.
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