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Intrinsic and Rational Speculative Bubbles in the US Housing Market: 1960-2011

Author

Listed:
  • Ogonna Nneji

    (University of Reading)

  • Chris Brooks

    (University of Reading)

  • Charles Ward

    (University of Reading)

Abstract

This paper examines the dynamics of the residential property market in the United States between 1960 and 2011. Given the cyclicality and apparent overvaluation of the market over this period, we determine whether deviations of real estate prices from their fundamentals were caused by the existence of two genres of bubbles: intrinsic bubbles and rational speculative bubbles. We find evidence of an intrinsic bubble in the market pre-2000, implying that overreaction to changes in rents contributed to the overvaluation of real estate prices. However, using a regime-switching model, we find evidence of periodically collapsing rational bubbles in the post-2000 market.

Suggested Citation

  • Ogonna Nneji & Chris Brooks & Charles Ward, 2013. "Intrinsic and Rational Speculative Bubbles in the US Housing Market: 1960-2011," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 35(2), pages 121-152.
    • Handle: RePEc:jre:issued:v:35:n:2:2013:p:121-152
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Daniele Bianchi & Massimo Guidolin & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2018. "Dissecting the 2007–2009 Real Estate Market Bust: Systematic Pricing Correction or Just a Housing Fad?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 34-62.
    2. Granziera, Eleonora & Kozicki, Sharon, 2015. "House price dynamics: Fundamentals and expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 152-165.
    3. Balcilar, Mehmet & Gupta, Rangan & Jooste, Charl & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Periodically collapsing bubbles in the South African stock market," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 191-201.
    4. Frank J. Fabozzi & Iason Kynigakis & Ekaterini Panopoulou & Radu S. Tunaru, 2020. "Detecting Bubbles in the US and UK Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 60(4), pages 469-513, May.
    5. André, Christophe & Caraiani, Petre & Călin, Adrian Cantemir & Gupta, Rangan, 2022. "Can monetary policy lean against housing bubbles?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    6. Rose Neng Lai & Robert A. Van Order, 2020. "A Tale of Two Countries: Comparing the US and Chinese Housing Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 505-547, October.
    7. Kai Zheng & Yuying Li & Weidong Xu, 2021. "Regime switching model estimation: spectral clustering hidden Markov model," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 297-319, August.
    8. Kouwenberg, Roy & Zwinkels, Remco, 2014. "Forecasting the US housing market," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 415-425.
    9. Wai-Mun Chia & Mengling Li & Huanhuan Zheng, 2017. "Behavioral heterogeneity in the Australian housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(9), pages 872-885, February.
    10. Wichita State University, 2016. "Contagion, Interdependence and Diversification across Regional UK Housing Markets," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 327-351.
    11. Yang Hu & Les Oxley, 2018. "Bubbles in US regional house prices: evidence from house price–income ratios at the State level," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(29), pages 3196-3229, June.
    12. Sheridan Titman & Ko Wang & Jing Yang, 2014. "The Dynamics of Housing Prices," NBER Working Papers 20418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Li, Yaoyao & Qi, Yuan & Liu, Licheng & Hou, Yuchen & Fu, Shuya & Yao, Jingtao & Zhu, Daolin, 2022. "Effect of increasing the rental housing supply on house prices: Evidence from China’s large and medium-sized cities," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • L85 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Real Estate Services

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