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What?s News in Business Cycles

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  • Uribe, Martín
  • Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie

Abstract

In this paper, we perform a structural Bayesian estimation of the contribution of anticipated shocks to business cycles in the postwar United States. Our theoretical framework is a real-business-cycle model augmented with four real rigidities: investment adjustment costs, variable capacity utilization, habit formation in consumption, and habit formation in leisure. Business cycles are assumed to be driven by permanent and stationary neutral productivity shocks, permanent investment-specific shocks, and government spending shocks. Each of these driving forces is buffeted by four types of structural innovations: unanticipated innovations and innovations anticipated one, two, and three quarters in advance. We find that anticipated shocks account for more than two thirds of predicted aggregate fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Uribe, Martín & Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie, 2009. "What?s News in Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 7201, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:7201
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Anticipated shocks; Bayesian estimation; Sources of aggregate fluctuations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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