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Leaning Against Boom-Bust Cycles in Credit and Housing Prices

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  • Luisa Lambertini

    () (EPFL)

  • Caterina Mendicino

    () (Bank of Portugal)

  • Maria Teresa Punzi

    () (Central Bank of Ecuador)

Abstract

This paper studies the potential gains of monetary and macro-prudential policies that lean against news-driven boom-bust cycles in housing prices and credit generated by expectations of future macroeconomic developments. First, we find no trade-off between the traditional goals of monetary policy and leaning against boom-bust cycles. An interest-rate rule that completely stabilizes inflation is not optimal. In contrast, an interest-rate rule that responds to financial variables mitigates macroeconomic and financial cycles and is welfare improving relative to the estimated rule. Second, counter-cyclical Loan-to-Value rules that respond to credit growth do not increase in ation volatility and are more effective in maintaining a stable provision of financial intermediation than interest-rate rules that respond to financial variables. Heterogeneity in the welfare implications for borrowers and savers make it dicult to rank the two policy frameworks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli in its series Working Papers CELEG with number 1104.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:lui:celegw:1104

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  1. Luisa Lambertini & Caterina Mendicino & Maria Tereza Punzi, 2010. "Expectations-Driven Cycles in the Housing Market," Working Papers w201004, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  2. Matteo Iacoviello, 2002. "House prices, borrowing constraints and monetary policy in the business cycle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 542, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 06 Dec 2004.
  3. Gilchrist, Simon & Leahy, John V., 2002. "Monetary policy and asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 75-97, January.
  4. Cosmin L. Ilut & Lawrence J. Christiano & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2010. "Monetary Policy and Stock Market Booms," Working Papers 10-69, Duke University, Department of Economics.
  5. Simon Gilchrist & Masashi Saito, 2006. "Expectations, Asset Prices, and Monetary Policy: The Role of Learning," NBER Working Papers 12442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1996. "Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  7. Matteo Iacoviello & Stefano Neri, 2008. "Housing market spillovers: Evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 659, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  8. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations in Neo-Classical Settings?," Open Access publications from University of Toulouse 1 Capitole http://neeo.univ-tlse1.fr, University of Toulouse 1 Capitole.
  9. Faia, Ester & Monacelli, Tommaso, 2007. "Optimal interest rate rules, asset prices, and credit frictions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(10), pages 3228-3254, October.
  10. Fabio Milani & John Treadwell, 2011. "The Effects of Monetary Policy "News" and "Surprises"," Working Papers 101109, University of California-Irvine, Department of Economics.
  11. Prakash Kannan & Pau Rabanal & Alasdair M. Scott, 2012. "Monetary and Macroprudential Policy Rules in a Model with House Price Booms," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 12(1), pages 16.
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Cited by:
  1. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2012. "House prices, credit growth, and excess volatility: implications for monetary and macroprudential policy," Working Paper Series 2012-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  2. Funke, Michael & Paetz, Michael, 2012. "A DSGE-Based Assessment of Nonlinear Loan-to-Value Policies: Evidence from Hong Kong," BOFIT Discussion Papers 11/2012, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
  3. Paolo Angelini & Sergio Nicoletti-Altimari & Ignazio Visco, 2012. "Macroprudential, microprudential and monetary policies: conflicts, complementarities and trade-offs," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 140, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  4. Ignazio Visco, 2011. "Key issues for the success of macroprudential policies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential regulation and policy, volume 60, pages 129-135 Bank for International Settlements.
  5. Bank for International Settlements, 2011. "Macroprudential regulation and policy," BIS Papers, Bank for International Settlements, number 60, March.

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