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Collateral Constraint and News-driven Cycles

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  • KOBAYASHI Keiichiro
  • NAKAJIMA Tomoyuki
  • INABA Masaru

Abstract

The boom-bust cycles such as the episode of the "Internet bubble" in the late 1990s may be described as the business cycle driven by changes in expectations or news about the future. The comovements in consumption, labor, and investment, in response to news about productivity changes in the future can be called the news-driven cycles. We show that with the assumption that firms are subject to the collateral constraint in financing input costs, a fairly standard Real Business Cycle model can generate the news-driven cycles. The collateral constraint models have several virtues: (1) The model structure is simple; (2) introduction of the intermediate input enables our models to reproduce procyclical movements in the total factor productivity; (3) our models can generate procyclical movements in price of capital (Tobin's q); and (4) the second model in our paper, which is a modified version of the Carlstrom-Fuerst model, can generate countercyclical movements in bankruptcies, while the original Carlstrom-Fuerst model cannot.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI) in its series Discussion papers with number 07013.

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Length: 33 pages
Date of creation: Mar 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eti:dpaper:07013

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  1. Comin, D. & Gertler, M., 2003. "Medium Term Business Cycles," Working Papers 03-05, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2006. "Can News About the Future Drive the Business Cycle?," NBER Working Papers 12537, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Lawrence Christiano & Cosmin Ilut & Roberto Motto & Massimo Rostagno, 2008. "Monetary policy and stock market boom-bust cycles," Working Paper Series 955, European Central Bank.
  4. Harald Uhlig, 1998. "A Toolkit for Analysing Nonlinear Dynamic Stochastic Models Easily," QM&RBC Codes 123, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
  5. Casey B. Mulligan, 2002. "Capital, Interest, and Aggregate Intertemporal Substitution," NBER Working Papers 9373, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Paul Beaudry & Franck Portier, 2005. "The "News" View of Economic Fluctuations: Evidence from Aggregate Japanese Data and Sectoral U.S. Data," NBER Working Papers 11496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2001. "An Exploration into Pigou's Theory of Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 2996, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Endogenous Sudden Stops in a Business Cycle Model with Collateral Constraints:A Fisherian Deflation of Tobin's Q," NBER Working Papers 12564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Juan Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2002. "Credit Cycles Redux," Macroeconomics 0210004, EconWPA.
    • Juan-Carlos Cordoba & Marla Ripoll, 2004. "Credit Cycles Redux," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1011-1046, November.
  10. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Business cycle accounting," Working Papers 625, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  11. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1996. "Agency costs, net worth, and business fluctuations: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Paper 9602, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  12. Beaudry, Paul & Portier, Franck, 2007. "When can Changes in Expectations Cause Business Cycle Fluctuations in Neo-Classical Settings?," Open Access publications from University of Toulouse 1 Capitole http://neeo.univ-tlse1.fr, University of Toulouse 1 Capitole.
  13. Timothy S. Fuerst & Charles T. Carlstrom, 1998. "Agency costs and business cycles," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 583-597.
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