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The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Economic Growth of Selected MENA1 Countries

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  • M. Hakan Berument
  • Nildag Basak Ceylan
  • Nukhet Dogan

Abstract

This paper examines how oil price shocks affect the output growth of selected MENA countries that are considered either net exporters or net importers of this commodity, but are too small to affect oil prices. That an individual country's economic performance does not affect world oil prices is imposed on the Vector Autoregressive setting as an identifying restriction. The estimates suggest that oil price increases have a statistically significant and positive effect on the outputs of Algeria, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. However, oil price shocks do not appear to have a statistically significant effect on the outputs of Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia. When we further decompose positive oil shocks such as oil demand and oil supply for the latter set of countries, oil supply shocks are associated with lower output growth but the effect of oil demand shocks on output remain positive.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Association for Energy Economics in its journal The Energy Journal.

Volume (Year): Volume 31 (2010)
Issue (Month): Number 1 ()
Pages: 149-176

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Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:2010v31-01-a07

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Cited by:
  1. Sajjad Faraji Dizaji & Mohammad Reza Farzanegan, 2014. "Political Institutions and Government Spending Behavior in Iran," CESifo Working Paper Series 4620, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Valérie Mignon & Audrey Sallenave, 2014. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," EconomiX Working Papers 2014-14, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  3. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad J. & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is there co-movement of agricultural commodities futures prices and crude oil?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 4971-4984, September.
  4. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2012. "Does the Iranian oil supply matter for the oil prices?," MPRA Paper 36030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza, 2011. "Military spending and economic growth: the case of Iran," MPRA Paper 35498, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Hamdi, Helmi & Sbia, Rashid, 2013. "Dynamic relationships between oil revenues, government spending and economic growth in an oil-dependent economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 118-125.
  7. Farzanegan, Mohammad Reza & Markwardt, Gunther, 2008. "The effects of oil price shocks on the Iranian economy," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 15/08, Dresden University of Technology, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
  8. Chuku, Chuku & Effiong, Ekpeno & Sam, Ndifreke, 2010. "Oil price distortions and their short- and long-run impacts on the Nigerian economy," MPRA Paper 24434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Zied Ftiti & Khaled Guesmi & Frédéric Teulon & Slim Chouachi, 2014. "Evolution of Crude Oil Prices and Economic Growth: The case of OPEC Countries," Working Papers 2014-421, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
  10. Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi, 2013. "Does Volatility in Crude Oil Price Precipitate Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 143-152.
  11. Shekar Shetty & Zahid Iqbal & Mansour Alshamali, 2013. "Energy Price Shocks and Economic Activity in Texas Cities," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 41(4), pages 371-383, December.
  12. Natanelov, Valeri & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2013. "Crude oil–corn–ethanol – nexus: A contextual approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 504-513.
  13. Carlos Pestana Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2011. "Oil Prices: Persistence and Breaks," Faculty Working Papers 09/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  14. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
  15. Tobias N. Rasmussen & Agustin Roitman, 2011. "Oil Shocks in a Global Perspective," IMF Working Papers 11/194, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Natanelov, Valeri & Alam, Mohammad Jahangir & McKenzie, Andrew M. & Van Huylenbroeck, Guido, 2011. "Is There Co-Movement of Agricultural Commodities Futures Prices and Crude Oil?," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114626, European Association of Agricultural Economists.

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