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Trade, investment and growth: nexus, analysis and prognosis

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  • Krishna, Kala
  • Ozyildirim, Ataman
  • Swanson, Norman R.

Abstract

This paper looks at the patterns of causation between income, export, import, and investment growth for 25 developing countries. Our approach differs from previous efforts in a number of ways. First, we examine each country individually in order to allow for complete heterogeneity and properly account for the stochastic trending properties of the data. Second, we apply novel model selection techniques which are based on in-sample goodness-of-fit criteria and ex-ante predictive ability criteria to identify the best model for each country. Finally, we propose a rather novel device based on simple contingency tables which allows us to assess whether our models are capable of accurately predicting turning points in GDP growth. We find that countries with high trade exposure fare poorly in this dimension and posit that the GDP growth in such countries is best modeled using an index of global business cycle conditions, in addition to the above variables. Overall, we find that in around two thirds of the countries examined, growth is best explained by exports and/or imports. Further, and in contrast to previous findings of bi-directional causality, around 70% of the countries exhibit uni-directional causality.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Development Economics.

Volume (Year): 70 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (April)
Pages: 479-499

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Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:70:y:2003:i:2:p:479-499

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Cited by:
  1. Riad Sultan, 2012. "An Econometric Study of Economic Growth, Energy and Exports in Mauritius: Implications for Trade and Climate Policy," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 225-237.
  2. Joao Ricardo Faria & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2003. "Cultural Heritage and Growth," Studies in Economics 0303, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  3. Enzo Weber, 2006. "Common and Uncommon Sources of Growth in Asia Pacific," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2006-064, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  4. Mutz,Christine & Ziesemer,Thomas, 2005. "Simultaneous Estimation of Income and Price Elasticities of Export Demand, Scale Economies and Total Factor Productivity Growth for Brazil," Research Memorandum 004, Maastricht University, Maastricht Economic Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
  5. Islam, Faridul & Adnan Hye, Qazi Muhammad & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Imports-economic growth nexus: ARDL approach to cointegration," MPRA Paper 28462, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Pablo Acosta & Andrés Loza, 2005. "Short and long run determinants of private investment in Argentina," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 389-406, November.
  7. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2011. "Linking Investment and Fiscal Policies," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/16, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  8. Judith A. Giles, 2000. "Testing for Two-Step Granger Noncausality in Trivariate VAR Models," Econometrics Working Papers 0008, Department of Economics, University of Victoria.
  9. Luintel, Kul B. & Mavrotas, George, 2005. "Examining Private Investment Heterogeneity: Evidence from a Dynamic Panel," Working Paper Series DP2005/11, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  10. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.

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