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Imports-economic growth nexus: ARDL approach to cointegration

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  • Islam, Faridul
  • Adnan Hye, Qazi Muhammad
  • Shahbaz, Muhammad

Abstract

This paper implements Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) to cointegration to explore long-run relation; and Granger procedure within Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to test direction of causality between imports and economic growth for a sample of forty–ten each from high; upper-middle; lower-middle; and low-income–nations. We find long-run bidirectional causality in high-income nations except Japan. For others, we find mixed results .

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 28462.

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Date of creation: 28 Jan 2011
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:28462

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Keywords: Imports; ARDL;

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  1. Jagdish Bhagwati, 2002. "Trade and Poverty in the Poor Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 180-183, May.
  2. Harrison, Ann, 1996. "Openness and growth: A time-series, cross-country analysis for developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 419-447, March.
  3. Sebastian Edwards, 1991. "Trade Orientation, Distortions and Growth in Developing Countries," NBER Working Papers 3716, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Kala Krishna & Ataman Ozyildirim & Norman R. Swanson, 1998. "Trade, Investment, and Growth: Nexus, Analysis, and Prognosis," NBER Working Papers 6861, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Mahadevan, Renuka & Suardi, Sandy, 2008. "A dynamic analysis of the impact of uncertainty on import- and/or export-led growth: The experience of Japan and the Asian Tigers," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 155-174, March.
  6. Paul M Romer, 1999. "Increasing Returns and Long-Run Growth," Levine's Working Paper Archive 2232, David K. Levine.
  7. Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  9. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad & Arti Prasad, 2007. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 341-351, September.
  10. Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1990. "Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 3528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
  12. Robert Z. Lawrence & David E. Weinstein, 1999. "Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence From Japan and Korea," NBER Working Papers 7264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
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Cited by:
  1. Tsangyao Chang & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "The Causal Relationship between Imports and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Tests," Working Papers 201320, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  2. Aliyev, Khatai, 2014. "Expected Macroeconomic Impacts of the Accession to WTO on Azerbaijan Economy: Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 55096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Evans, Olaniyi, 2013. "Testing Finance-Led, Export-Led and Import-Led Growth Hypotheses on Four Sub-Saharan African Economies," MPRA Paper 52460, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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