Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan
AbstractThe article investigates the impacts of imports and foreign capital inflows on economic growth of Pakistan over the period 1990 to 2010. We have applied the structural break autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration to examine the long-run relationship between the variables. The vector error correction model (VECM) Granger causality multivariate framework is used to investigate the causal relationship between the series. Empirical analysis in this article confirms the long-run relationship between foreign capital inflows, imports and economic growth. The results indicate that foreign capital inflows and imports have positive and significant effect on economic growth in case of Pakistan. Causality analysis reveals the bidirectional causality between the variables, but strong causal relation is running from foreign capital inflows and imports to economic growth.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka in its journal South Asia Economic Journal.
Volume (Year): 14 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.ips.lk/
Imports; FDI; growth; Pakistan;
Other versions of this item:
- Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 29805, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Mar 2011.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
- F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
- F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
- O53 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Titus Awokuse, 2007. "Trade openness and economic growth: is growth export-led or import-led?," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 161-173.
- Jose De Gregorio, 1991.
"Economic Growth in Latin America,"
IMF Working Papers
91/71, International Monetary Fund.
- Jong-Wha Lee & Jose De Gregorio & Eduardo Borensztein, 1994.
"How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth,"
IMF Working Papers
94/110, International Monetary Fund.
- Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
- Eduardo Borensztein & Jose De Gregorio & Jong-Wha Lee, 1995. "How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth?," NBER Working Papers 5057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Rene Teboul & Emmanuelle Moustier, 2001. "Foreign aid and economic growth: the case of the countries south of the Mediterranean," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 8(3), pages 187-190.
- Paul Turner, 2006. "Response surfaces for an F-test for cointegration," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 13(8), pages 479-482.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & S M Aamir Shamim & Naveed Aamir, 2010. "Macroeconomic Environment and Financial Sector’s Performance: Econometric Evidence from Three Traditional Approaches," The IUP Journal of Financial Economics, IUP Publications, vol. 0(1 & 2), pages 103-123, March & J.
- Kokko, Ari & Tansini, Ruben & Zejan, Mario, 1994.
"Productivity Spillovers from FDI in the Uruguayan Manufacturing Sector,"
Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
2, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Ari Kokko & Ruben Tansini & Mario Zejan, 1994. "Productivity spillovers from FDI in the Uruguayan manufacturing sector," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0194, Department of Economics - dECON.
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Khalil Ahmad & A. R. Chaudhary, 2008. "Economic Growth and Its Determinants in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 471-486.
- Iscan, T., 1996.
"Trade Liberalization and Productivity: A Panel Study of the Mexican Manufacturing Industry,"
Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive
97-05, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
- Talan Iscan, 1998. "Trade Liberalization and Productivity-A Panel Study of the Mexican Manufacturing Industry," Department of Economics at Dalhousie University working papers archive tradelib, Dalhousie, Department of Economics.
- Jesko Hentschel, 1992. "A note on the relationship between imports and growth," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 339-345, June.
- Awokuse, Titus O., 2007. "Causality between exports, imports, and economic growth: Evidence from transition economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(3), pages 389-395, March.
- L.R. de Mello Jr., 1996.
"Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data,"
Studies in Economics
9615, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
- de Mello, Luiz R, Jr, 1999. "Foreign Direct Investment-Led Growth: Evidence from Time Series and Panel Data," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 133-51, January.
- Steven Globerman, 1979. "Foreign Direct Investment and `Spillover' Efficiency Benefits in Canadian Manufacturing Industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 12(1), pages 42-56, February.
- Blomstrom, Magnus & Wolff, E.N., 1989.
"Multinational Corporations And Productivity Convergence In Mexico,"
89-28, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
- Magnus Blomstrom & Edward N. Wolff, 1994. "Multinational Corporations and Productivity Convergence in Mexico," NBER Working Papers 3141, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Laura Alfaro & Selin Sayek & Areendam Chanda, 2002.
"FDI and Economic Growth: The Role of Local Financial Markets,"
- Alfaro, Laura & Chanda, Areendam & Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sayek, Selin, 2004. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 89-112, October.
- Haddad, Mona & Harrison, Ann, 1993. "Are there positive spillovers from direct foreign investment? : Evidence from panel data for Morocco," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 51-74, October.
- Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad & Shaista Alam & Mohammad Sabihuddin Butt, 2003. "Foreign Direct Investment, Exports, and Domestic Output in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 715-723.
- Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
- Kevin Honglin Zhang, 2001. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth in China?," The Economics of Transition, The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, vol. 9(3), pages 679-693, November.
- Ann E. Harrison & Brian J. Aitken, 1999. "Do Domestic Firms Benefit from Direct Foreign Investment? Evidence from Venezuela," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 605-618, June.
- Muhammad SHAHBAZ & Rana Ejaz Ali KHAN, 2010. "Old Wine in New Bottles: Saving – Growth Nexus: Innovative Accounting Technique in Pakistan," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 7(7(548)), pages 49-60, July.
- Niels Hermes & Robert Lensink, 2003.
"Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth,"
The Journal of Development Studies,
Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 142-163.
- Hermes, Niels & Lensink, Robert, 2000. "Foreign direct investment, financial development and economic growth," Research Report 00E27, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
- Muhammad Shahbaz & Nuno Carlos leitão & Summaira Malik, 2011.
"Foreign Direct Investment-Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Domestic Financial Development in Portugal,"
AccessEcon, vol. 31(4), pages 2824-2838.
- Muhammad, Shahbaz & Nuno, Carlos Leitão & Summaira, Malik, 2011. "Foreign direct investment-economic growth nexus: The role of domestic financial development in Portugal," MPRA Paper 34226, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Oct 2011.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
- Shandre Mugan Thangavelu & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2004. "Is there an export or import-led productivity growth in rapidly developing Asian countries? a multivariate VAR analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(10), pages 1083-1093.
- Vijaya Ramachandran & Manju Kedia Shah, 1999. "Minority entrepreneurs and firm performance in sub-Saharan Africa," The Journal of Development Studies, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 71-87.
- Findlay, Ronald, 1978. "Relative Backwardness, Direct Foreign Investment, and the Transfer of Technology: A Simple Dynamic Model," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 1-16, February.
- Muhammad Shahbaz, 2010. "Income inequality-economic growth and non-linearity: a case of Pakistan," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(8), pages 613-636, July.
- Robert Z. Lawrence & David E. Weinstein, 1999. "Trade and Growth: Import-Led or Export-Led? Evidence From Japan and Korea," NBER Working Papers 7264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Anjum Aqeel & Mohammed Nishat, 2004. "The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(4), pages 651-664.
- Tsangyao Chang & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2013.
"The Causal Relationship between Exports and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Tests,"
201319, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
- Tsangyao Chang & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "The causal relationship between exports and economic growth in the nine provinces of South Africa: evidence from panel-Granger causality test," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 6(3), pages 296-310.
- Tsangyao Chang & Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "The Causal Relationship between Imports and Economic Growth in the Nine Provinces of South Africa: Evidence from Panel-Granger Causality Tests," Working Papers 201320, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.