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Does financial development 'lead' economic growth? A vector auto-regression appraisal

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  • Jordan Shan
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    Abstract

    Using a Vector Autoregression (VAR) approach, several hypotheses are re-examined suggested by the literature concerning the relationship between financial development and economic growth, investment and productivity. The models use quarterly time-series data from ten OECD countries and China. Innovation accounting or variance decomposition and impulse response function analysis is applied to examine interrelationships between variables in the VAR system and, therefore, differs from the more usual Granger causality approach. In particular, it examines the relationship between financial development proxied by total credit. At best, weak support is found for the hypothesis that financial development 'leads' economic growth.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

    Volume (Year): 37 (2005)
    Issue (Month): 12 ()
    Pages: 1353-1367

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    Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:37:y:2005:i:12:p:1353-1367

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    1. Philip Arestis & Panicos O. Demetriades & Bassam Fattouh & Kostas Mouratidis, 2002. "The Impact of Financial Liberalisation Policies on Financial Development Evidence from Developing Economies," Discussion Papers in Economics 02/1, Department of Economics, University of Leicester.
    2. Arestis, Philip & Demetriades, Panicos O & Luintel, Kul B, 2001. "Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Role of Stock Markets," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(1), pages 16-41, February.
    3. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
    4. Raghuram G. Rajan & Luigi Zingales, . "Financial Dependence and Growth," CRSP working papers 344, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
    5. King, Robert G. & Levine, Ross, 1993. "Finance and growth : Schumpeter might be right," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1083, The World Bank.
    6. Jordan Shan & Fiona Sun, 1998. "On the export-led growth hypothesis: the econometric evidence from China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(8), pages 1055-1065.
    7. Levine, Ross, 1996. "Financial development and economic growth : views and agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1678, The World Bank.
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    Cited by:
    1. HAMDI, Helmi & SBIA, Rashid, 2012. "Modeling causality between Electricity consumption and Economic Growth in BIICS Countries," MPRA Paper 49909, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2012.
    2. Muhammad, Shahbaz & Ilhan, Ozturk, 2012. "Electricity consumption and economic growth causality revisited: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 37637, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 20 Mar 2012.
    3. Kyophilavong, Phouphet & Salah Uddin, Gazi & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2014. "The Nexus Between Financial Development and Economic Growth in Lao PDR," MPRA Paper 57308, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Jul 2014.
    4. Baliamoune-Lutz, Mina, 2009. "Entrepreneurship and Reforms in Developing Countries," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    5. Mohamed Arouri & Gazi Salah Uddin & Kishwar Nawaz & Muhammad Shahbaz & Frédéric Teulon, 2013. "Causal Linkages between Financial Development, Trade Openness and Economic Growth: Fresh Evidence from Innovative Accounting Approach in Case of Bangladesh," Working Papers 2013-037, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    6. Luisa Blanco, 2013. "Finance, Growth, and Institutions in Latin America: What are the Links?," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 50(2), pages 179-208, November.
    7. Bassam AbuAl-Foul & Ismail Genc & Musa Darayseh, . "On the Causal Link between Financial Development and Economic Growth: Case of Jordan," Economics Working Papers 18-04/2014, School of Business Administration, American University of Sharjah.
    8. Henryk Gurgul & £ukasz Lach, 2012. "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Poland in Transition: Causality Analysis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 62(4), pages 347-367, August.
    9. repec:ipg:wpaper:37 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth: The experience of African countries revisited," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 217-224.
    11. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal & Ali, Imran & Rehman, Ijaz Ur, 2014. "Is gold investment a hedge against inflation in Pakistan? A co-integration and causality analysis in the presence of structural breaks," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 190-205.
    12. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Tahir, Mohammad Iqbal & Ali, Imran, 2013. "Is Gold Investment A Hedge against Inflation in Pakistan? A Cointegtaion and Causality Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks," MPRA Paper 47924, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2013.
    13. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2007. "The Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus for Turkey," MPRA Paper 3566, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Wolde-Rufael, Yemane & Menyah, Kojo, 2010. "Nuclear energy consumption and economic growth in nine developed countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 550-556, May.
    15. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2011. "Do Imports and Foreign Capital Inflows Lead Economic Growth? Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," MPRA Paper 29805, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 24 Mar 2011.
    16. Menyah, Kojo & Nazlioglu, Saban & Wolde-Rufael, Yemane, 2014. "Financial development, trade openness and economic growth in African countries: New insights from a panel causality approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 386-394.
    17. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Salah Uddin, Gazi & Ur Rehman, Ijaz & Imran, Kashif, 2014. "Industrialization, electricity consumption and CO2 emissions in Bangladesh," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 575-586.
    18. Adamopoulos Antonios, 2010. "Credit Market Development and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis for Ireland," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(4), pages 3-18.
    19. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Mohammad, Mafizur Rahman, 2014. "The Dynamics of Exports, Financial Development and Economic Growth in Pakistan: New Extensions from Cointegration and Causality Analysis," MPRA Paper 53225, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Jan 2014.
    20. Salahodjaev, Raufhon & Chepel, Sergey, 2014. "Institutional Quality and Inflation," MPRA Paper 55272, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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