Granger Causality Between Exports, Imports and GDP in France: Evidance from Using Geostatistical Models
AbstractThis paper introduces a new way of investigating linear and nonlinear Granger causality between exports, imports and economic growth in France over the period 1961_2006 with using geostatistical models (kiriging and Inverse distance weighting). Geostatistical methods are the ordinary methods for forecasting the locatins and making map in water engineerig, environment, environmental pollution, mining, ecology, geology and geography. Although, this is the first time which geostatistics knowledge is used for economic analyzes. In classical econometrics there do not exist any estimator which have the capability to find the best functional form in the estimation. Geostatistical models investigate simultaneous linear and various nonlinear types of causality test, which cause to decrease the effects of choosing functional form in autoregressive model. This approach imitates the Granger definition and structure but improve it to have better ability to investigate nonlinear causality. Taking into account t e results of linear and non linear (using geostatistical method) causality analysis, results give strong evidence that there was causality running from GDP to trade. Additionally, the nonlinear causality analysis also leads to the conclusion that export was a causal factor for import. Our result supports the GLE model in France.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Weissberg Publishing in its journal Economic Research Guardian.
Volume (Year): 2 (2012)
Issue (Month): 1 (May)
Contact details of provider:
Granger causality; Exports; Imports; Economic growth; Geostatistical model;
Other versions of this item:
- Amiri, Arshia & Gerdtham, Ulf-G, 2011. "Relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in France: evidence from cointegration analysis and Granger causality with using geostatistical models," MPRA Paper 34190, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
- F19 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Other
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Oxley, Les, 1993. "Cointegration, causality and export-led growth in Portugal, 1865-1985," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 163-166.
- Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
- Ramos, Francisco F. Ribeiro, 2001. "Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 613-623, December.
- Diks, C.G.H. & Panchenko, V., 2004.
"A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
04-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Diks, Cees & Panchenko, Valentyn, 2006. "A new statistic and practical guidelines for nonparametric Granger causality testing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1647-1669.
- Edwards, Sebastian, 1998.
"Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 383-98, March.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1997. "Openness, Productivity and Growth: What Do We Really Know?," NBER Working Papers 5978, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marin, Dalia, 1992.
"Is the Export-led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?,"
Munich Reprints in Economics
3112, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Marin, Dalia, 1992. "Is the Export-Led.Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 678-88, November.
- Marin, Dalia, 1990. "Is the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Valid for Industrialized Countries?," CEPR Discussion Papers 362, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michaely, Michael, 1977. "Exports and growth : An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 49-53, February.
- Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, P., 1976. "The use of R2 to determine the appropriate transformation of regression variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 205-210, August.
- Balassa, Bela, 1978. "Exports and economic growth : Further evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 181-189, June.
- Paul M Romer, 1999.
"Endogenous Technological Change,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
2135, David K. Levine.
- Luis A. Rivera-Batiz & Paul M. Romer, 1990.
"Economic Integration and Endogenous Growth,"
NBER Working Papers
3528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Edward F. Buffie, 1992. "On the Condition for Export-Led Growth," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(1), pages 211-25, February.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
- Hill, Tim & Marquez, Leorey & O'Connor, Marcus & Remus, William, 1994. "Artificial neural network models for forecasting and decision making," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 5-15, June.
- Mazumdar, Joy, 2001. "Imported machinery and growth in LDCs," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 209-224, June.
- Amiri, Arshia & Zibaei, Mansour, 2012. "Granger causality between energy use and economic growth in France with using geostatistical models," MPRA Paper 36357, University Library of Munich, Germany.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mihai Mutascu).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.