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Assessment of Commerce Potency on Economic Growth in Italy: Empirical Analysis

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  • Bakari, Sayef
  • Saaidia, Fatma

Abstract

The link between exports, imports and economic growth in Italy has been extensively discussed by historiography. This paper investigates the relationship between exports, imports, and economic growth in Italy. In order to achieve this purpose, annual data were collected from the reports of the World Bank for the periods between 1985 and 2015, was tested by using Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationary test, Co integration analysis of the Vector Auto Regression Model and the Granger-Causality tests. According to the empirical results, we found that exports and imports have not any effect on economic growth. Also, we discovered, according to the Granger-Causality tests that there is no any relationship of causality between trade and economic growth. However, and according to the results of the correlation analysis, we found that trade and economic growth in Italy are positively correlated, meaning that the strategy economic posing by Italy is not efficacious to solve economic problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Bakari, Sayef & Saaidia, Fatma, 2017. "Assessment of Commerce Potency on Economic Growth in Italy: Empirical Analysis," MPRA Paper 76473, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:76473
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Arshia Amiri & Ulf-G Gerdtham, 2012. "Granger Causality Between Exports, Imports and GDP in France: Evidance from Using Geostatistical Models," Economic Research Guardian, Weissberg Publishing, vol. 2(1), pages 43-59, May.
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    4. Musleh-Ud Din, 2004. "Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in South Asia: Evidence Using a Multivariate Time-series Framework," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 43(2), pages 105-124.
    5. El Alaoui, Aicha, 2015. "Causality and cointegration between export, import and economic growth: evidence from Morocco," MPRA Paper 65431, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Nikolaos Dritsakis & Pavlos Stamatiou, 2016. "Trade Openness and Economic Growth: A Panel Cointegration and Causality Analysis for the Newest EU Countries," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(59), pages 45-60, March.
    7. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-1072, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sayef Bakari, 2017. "The Three-Way Linkages Between Export, Import And Economic Growth: New Evidence From Tunisia," Journal of Smart Economic Growth, , vol. 2(3), pages 13-53, December.
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    4. Bakari, Sayef, 2022. "The Impact of Natural resources, CO2 Emission, Energy use, Domestic Investment, Innovation, Trade and Digitalization on Economic growth: Evidence from 52 African Countries," MPRA Paper 114323, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Bakari, Sayef, 2017. "Why is South Africa Still a Developing Country?," MPRA Paper 80763, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export; Import; Economic Growth; Correlation; Cointegration; VAR and Causality.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

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