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Forecasting exchange rates: A robust regression approach

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  • Preminger, Arie
  • Franck, Raphael

Abstract

The least squares estimation method as well as other ordinary estimation method for regression models can be severely affected by a small number of outliers, thus providing poor out-of-sample forecasts. This paper suggests a robust regression approach,based on the S-estimation method, to construct forecasting models that are less sensitive to data contamination by outliers. A robust linear autoregressive (RAR) and a robust neural network (RNN) models are estimated to study the predictability of twoexchange rates at the 1-, 3- and 6-month horizon. We compare the predictive ability of the robust models to those of the random walk (RW), the standard linear autoregressive (AR) and neural networks (NN) models in terms of forecast accuracy and sign predictability measures. We find that robust models tend to improve the forecasting accuracy of the AR and of theNNat all time horizons, and even of the RWfor forecasts carried out at the 1-month horizon. Robust models are also shown to have significantmarket timing ability at all forecast horizons.
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  • Preminger, Arie & Franck, Raphael, 2007. "Forecasting exchange rates: A robust regression approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 71-84.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:23:y:2007:i:1:p:71-84
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    4. Cizek, P., 2007. "Efficient Robust Estimation of Time-Series Regression Models," Discussion Paper 2007-95, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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    6. Panagiotis Papaioannnou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Papers 1310.5306, arXiv.org.
    7. Yaojie Zhang & Mengxi He & Yuqi Zhao & Xianfeng Hao, 2023. "Predicting stock realized variance based on an asymmetric robust regression approach," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(4), pages 1022-1047, October.
    8. Saeed Rasekhi, 2011. "Fundamental Modeling Exchange Rate using Genetic Algorithm: A Case Study of European Countries," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 3(6), pages 352-359.
    9. Crone, Sven F. & Hibon, Michèle & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2011. "Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 635-660.
    10. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2017. "Forecasting crude-oil market volatility: Further evidence with jumps," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 508-519.
    11. Cízek, Pavel, 2011. "Semiparametrically weighted robust estimation of regression models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 774-788, January.
    12. Xian, Lu & He, Kaijian & Lai, Kin Keung, 2016. "Gold price analysis based on ensemble empirical model decomposition and independent component analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 454(C), pages 11-23.
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    14. Corina SAMAN, 2015. "Out-Of-Sample Forecasting Performance Of A Robust Neural Exchange Rate Model Of Ron/Usd," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 93-106, March.
    15. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Souropanis, Ioannis, 2019. "The role of technical indicators in exchange rate forecasting," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 197-221.
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    17. Mahmoud Dehghan Nayeri & Ali Faal Ghayoumi & Malihe Rostami, 2016. "Forecasting in Financial Data Context," Asian Journal of Economic Modelling, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(3), pages 124-133, September.
    18. Panagiotis Papaioannou & Lucia Russo & George Papaioannou & Constantinos Siettos, 2013. "Can social microblogging be used to forecast intraday exchange rates?," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 47-68, November.

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    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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