Advanced Search

Papers Articles Authors Institutions Data (FRED®)

Abstract

We study the dynamics of inflation persistence in 45 countries for the period 1960-2008. We use a nonparametric unit root test robust to nonlinearities, error distributions, structural breaks and outliers, many of them typical features of inflation data, and a test for multiple changes in persistence, which decomposes the sample information between adjacent I(0) and I(1) periods. We find that (1) With very few exceptions, inflation around the world rejects a unit root, (2) for several countries there is evidence of significant changes in persistence, (3) bursts and drops in the level of inflation and in inflation persistence tend to coincide, (4) these drops occurred during “the Great Moderation” and during the adoption of inflation targeting. We conclude that inflation is characterized by either a stationary behaviour throughout the sample, or by switches of the type I(0)-I(1)-I(0). For all countries in our sample, any indication of nonstationarity seems to be temporary.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.banxico.org.mx/publicaciones-y-discursos/publicaciones/documentos-de-investigacion/banxico/%7BC0521285-30E1-1548-6CA5-AE22BBF807AF%7D.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Banco de México in its series Working Papers with number 2009-02.

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Feb 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2009-02

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.banxico.org.mx
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: Inflation; Multiple persistence change; Stationarity; Unit root tests; Unknown direction of change; Monetary policy;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

• C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
• C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models
• E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
• E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
• E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

• NEP-ALL-2009-03-14 (All new papers)
• NEP-CBA-2009-03-14 (Central Banking)
• NEP-MAC-2009-03-14 (Macroeconomics)
• NEP-MON-2009-03-14 (Monetary Economics)

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

1. Kontonikas, A., 2004. "Inflation and inflation uncertainty in the United Kingdom, evidence from GARCH modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-543, May.
   
   • A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Public Policy Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
   • A. Kontonikas, 2002. "Inflation and Inflation Uncertainty in the United Kingdom: Evidence from GARCH modelling," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 02-28, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
2. Alberto Cabrero & Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & Astrid Hirsch & Fernando Nieto, 2002. "Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank," Working Paper Series 142, European Central Bank.
3. Noriega Antonio E. & Ramos Francia Manuel, 2008. "A Note on the Dynamics of Persistence in US Inflation," Working Papers 2008-12, Banco de México.
4. Filippo Altissimo & Laurent Bilke & Andrew Levin & Thomas Mathä & Benoit Mojon, 2006. "Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 585-593, 04-05.
5. Luca Benati, 2006. "UK monetary regimes and macroeconomic stylised facts," Bank of England working papers 290, Bank of England.
   
   • Luca Benati, 2005. "U.K. Monetary Regimes and Macroeconomic Stylised Facts," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 107, Society for Computational Economics.
6. Manuel Ramos Francia & Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio E. Noriega, 2007. "Time Series Approach to Test a Change in Inflation Persistence: The Mexican Experience," Working Papers 2007-01, Banco de México.
   
   • Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
7. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
   
   • Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
8. Eiji Kurozumi, 2005. "Detection of Structural Change in the Long-run Persistence in a Univariate Time Series," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(2), pages 181-206, 04.
9. Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2005. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 709-720, November.
   
   • Gerard O'Reilly & Karl Whelan, 2004. "Has euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?," Working Paper Series 335, European Central Bank.
   • O'Reilly, Gerard & Whelan, Karl, 2005. "Has Euro-area inflation persistence changed over time?," Open Access publications from University College Dublin urn:hdl:10197/211, University College Dublin.
   • O'Reilly,Gerard & Whelan, Karl, 2004. "Has Euro-Area Inflation Persistence Changed Over Time?," Research Technical Papers 4/RT/04, Central Bank of Ireland.
10. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach," Economics Working Papers 958, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
    
    • María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
    • Gadea, Maria & Mayoral, Laura, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," MPRA Paper 815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
11. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    
    • Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2004. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Paper Series 334, European Central Bank.
    • Andrew Levin & Jeremy Piger, 2003. "Is Inflation Persistence Intrinsic in Industrial Economies?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2003 298, Society for Computational Economics.
12. Robert Taylor & Stephen Leybourne & David Harvey, 2004. "Modified Tests for a Change in Persistence," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 64, Econometric Society.
    
    • Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
13. Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," NBER Working Papers 10764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    
    • Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2006. "Shocks and Government Beliefs: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(4), pages 1193-1224, September.
    • Thomas Sargent & Noah Williams & Tao Zha, 2004. "Shocks and government beliefs: the rise and fall of American inflation," Working Paper 2004-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
14. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E., 1988. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 425-444.
    
    • Bharat Trehan & Carl E. Walsh, 1987. "Common trends, the government's budget constraint, and revenue smoothing," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 87-11, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
15. Nicoletta Batini & Edward Nelson, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," Discussion Papers 06, Monetary Policy Committee Unit, Bank of England.
    
    • Batini, Nicoletta & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "The Lag from Monetary Policy Actions to Inflation: Friedman Revisited," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 4(3), pages 381-400, Winter.
16. Claudio Borio & William English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 1-59 Bank for International Settlements.
17. Felipe Aparicio & Alvaro Escribano & Ana E. Sipols, 2006. "Range Unit-Root (RUR) Tests: Robust against Nonlinearities, Error Distributions, Structural Breaks and Outliers," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(4), pages 545-576, 07.
    
    • Escribano, Álvaro & Sipols, Ana E. & Aparicio, Felipe M., 2006. "Range Unit Root (RUR) Tests: Robust against Nonlinearities, Error Distributions, Structural Breaks and Outliers," Open Access publications from Universidad Carlos III de Madrid info:hdl:10016/2582, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid.
18. Peter Burridge & Daniela Hristova, 2008. "Consistent estimation and order selection for nonstationary autoregressive processes with stable innovations," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(4), pages 695-718, 07.
19. Santos, Carlos, 2008. "Impulse saturation break tests," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 136-143, February.
20. Stephen J. Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Regression-based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(5), pages 595-621, October.
21. Stephen Leybourne & Robert Taylor & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2007. "CUSUM of Squares-Based Tests for a Change in Persistence," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(3), pages 408-433, 05.
22. Manmohan S. Kumar & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2007. "Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1479, 09.
23. Coenen, Gunter, 2007. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 111-140, January.
    
    • Günter Coenen, 2003. "Inflation persistence and robust monetary policy design," Working Paper Series 290, European Central Bank.
24. Meredith Beechey & Pär Österholm, 2012. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 8(3), pages 55-86, September.
    
    • Meredith Beechey & Par Osterholm, 2007. "The rise and fall of U.S. inflation persistence," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2007-26, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Beechey, Meredith & Österholm, Pär, 2007. "The Rise and Fall of U.S. Inflation Persistence," Working Paper Series 2007:18, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.
25. Pivetta, Frederic & Reis, Ricardo, 2007. "The persistence of inflation in the United States," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1326-1358, April.
26. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060, August.
    
    • Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating inflation persistence across monetary regimes," Working Paper Series 851, European Central Bank.
27. Stephen Leybourne & Tae-Hwan Kim & A.M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Detecting Multiple Changes in Persistence," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 11(3), pages 2.
28. Claudio E. V. Borio & Wiliam English & Andrew Filardo, 2003. "A tale of two perspectives: old or new challenges for monetary policy?," BIS Working Papers 127, Bank for International Settlements.
29. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.

Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

as HTML HTML with abstract plain text plain text with abstract BibTeX RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite) ReDIF in new window

Cited by:

1. Carlos Capistrán & Raúl Ibarra-Ramírez & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2011. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Prices: Evidence from Mexico," Working Papers 2011-12, Banco de México.
2. José Julián Sidaoui & Carlos Capistrán & Daniel Chiquiar & Manuel Ramos Francia, 2009. "A Note on the Predictive Content of PPI over CPI Inflation: The Case of Mexico," Working Papers 2009-14, Banco de México.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdm:wpaper:2009-02

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dirección de Sistemas).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

---

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.

Privacy Legal