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An Ardl Model Of Aggregate Tourism Demand For Turkey

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Author Info
Ferda Halicioglu (The University of Greenwich, London)

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Abstract

This study empirically examines aggregate tourism demand function for Turkey using the time series data for the period 1960-2002. The total tourist arrivals into Turkey are related to world income, relative prices and transportation cost. We employ bounds testing cointegration procedure proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) to compute the short and long-run elasticities of income, price, and transportation cost variables. We also implement CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests on the aggregate tourism demand function. The empirical results indicate that income is the most significant variable in explaining the total tourist arrivals to Turkey and there exists a stable tourism demand function.

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Paper provided by EconWPA in its series International Trade with number 0503005.

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Date of creation: 11 Mar 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpit:0503005

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F1 - International Economics - - Trade
F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "Tests for Parameter Instability in Regressions with I(1) Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 321-35, July.
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  2. Song, Haiyan & Romilly, Peter & Liu, Xiaming, 2000. "An Empirical Study of Outbound Tourism Demand in the UK," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 32(5), pages 611-24, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  4. Vogt, Michael G & Wittayakorn, Chutima, 1998. "Determinants of the Demand for Thailand's Exports of Tourism," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 711-15, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Bohl, Martin T., 2000. "German monetary unification and the stability of the German M3 money demand function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 203-208, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326. [Downloadable!]
  7. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1992. "Recursive Estimation in Cointegrated VAR-Models," Discussion Papers 92-13, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  9. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Song, Haiyan & Witt, Stephen F. & Jensen, Thomas C., 2003. "Tourism forecasting: accuracy of alternative econometric models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 123-141. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
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  1. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2008. "An Econometric Analysis of Aggregate Outbound Tourism Demand of Turkey," MPRA Paper 6765, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2008. [Downloadable!]
  2. Aslan, Alper, 2008. "Türkiye’de Ekonomik Büyüme ve Turizm İlişkisi Üzerine Ekonometrik Analiz," MPRA Paper 10611, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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