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A Multivariate Causality Analysis of Export and Growth for Turkey

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  • Ferda Halicioglu

Abstract

This study seeks to validity of the export-led growth hypothesis using quarterly data from 1980 to 2005. The bounds testing approach to cointegration is employed to test the causal relationship between industrial production, exports and terms of trade. An augmented form of Granger causality analysis is implemented to identify the direction of relationship among the variables both in the short-run and the long-run. The empirical findings suggest uni-directional causation from exports to industrial production.

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File URL: http://www.eeri.eu/documents/wp/EERI_RP_2007_05.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels in its series EERI Research Paper Series with number EERI_RP_2007_05.

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Length: 12 pages
Date of creation: 27 Oct 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:eei:rpaper:eeri_rp_2007_05

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Keywords: Export-led growth; causality; cointegration; Turkey;

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References

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  1. Jai Mah, 2005. "Export expansion, economic growth and causality in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 105-107.
  2. Stilianos Fountas, 1995. "Some Evidence on the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis for Ireland," Working Papers 08, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 1995.
  3. Love, Jim & Chandra, Ramesh, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in Bangladesh in a multivarate VAR framework," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 1155-1168, January.
  4. Titus Awokuse, 2006. "Export-led growth and the Japanese economy: evidence from VAR and directed acyclic graphs," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 593-602.
  5. Bassam Abual-Foul, 2004. "Testing the export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Jordan," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(6), pages 393-396.
  6. Subidey Togan, 2002. "Turkey: Toward EU Accession," Working Papers 0202, Economic Research Forum, revised Jan 2002.
  7. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(3), pages 261-337.
  8. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J & Manuchehr Irandoust, 2000. "Export performance and economic growth causality: An empirical analysis," Atlantic Economic Journal, International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 28(4), pages 412-426, December.
  9. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Biman Chand Prasad & Arti Prasad, 2007. "Export-led growth hypothesis: evidence from Papua New Guinea and Fiji," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 34(4), pages 341-351, September.
  10. A. F. Darrat & M. K. Hsu & M. Zhong, 2000. "Testing export exogeneity in Taiwan: further evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(9), pages 563-567.
  11. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  12. Titus Awokuse, 2005. "Exports, economic growth and causality in Korea," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(11), pages 693-696.
  13. Jim Love & Ramesh Chandra, 2005. "Testing export-led growth in South Asia," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 32(2), pages 132-145, May.
  14. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  15. K. A. Al Mamun & H. K. Nath, 2005. "Export-led growth in Bangladesh: a time series analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6), pages 361-364.
  16. Judith Giles & Cara Williams, 2001. "Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 445-470.
  17. Jacint Balaguer & Manuel Cantavella-Jorda, 2001. "Examining the export-led growth hypothesis for Spain in the last century," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(10), pages 681-685.
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Cited by:
  1. Halicioglu, Ferda, 2010. "A dynamic econometric study of income, energy and exports in Turkey," MPRA Paper 29579, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Ferda HALICIOGLU, 2012. "The Demand for Calories in Turkey," Iktisat Isletme ve Finans, Bilgesel Yayincilik, vol. 27(316), pages 93-108.

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