IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/epolit/v34y2017i2d10.1007_s40888-017-0053-7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Factors affecting trade deficit in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammad Shahid Hassan

    (University of Management and Technology)

  • Ayesha Wajid

    (University of Management and Technology)

  • Rukhsana Kalim

    (University of Management and Technology)

Abstract

This study explores factors that affect trade deficit in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. After applying ARDL bounds testing approach on sample period from 1972 to 2013, this study finds evidence of long run relationship between trade deficit and its factors in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. The findings confirm that depreciation of real effective exchange rate significantly decreases trade deficit in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Moreover, the results further disclose that as economic growth expands, trade deficit shrinks significantly in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh. The findings also show that money supply significantly enhances trade deficit in Pakistan and India. These findings are robust to various diagnostic tests which are used in the present study. Finally based on these results, it is concluded that trade deficit could be improved by targeting real effective exchange rate, per capita income and money supply in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Shahid Hassan & Ayesha Wajid & Rukhsana Kalim, 2017. "Factors affecting trade deficit in Pakistan, India and Bangladesh," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 34(2), pages 283-304, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:34:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40888-017-0053-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s40888-017-0053-7
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40888-017-0053-7
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40888-017-0053-7?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Shah, Anwar & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq, 2014. "Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Pakistan: An ARDL Co-integration Approach," MPRA Paper 57674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. H. Bayram Irhan & Nur Dilbaz Alacahan & Levent Korap, 2011. "An Empirical Model for the Turkish Trade Balance: New Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing Analyses," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 14(1), pages 38-61, May.
    3. repec:asi:ajoerj:2013:p:605-617 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    5. Waliullah & Mehmood Khan Kakar & Rehmatullah Kakar & Wakeel Khan, 2010. "The Determinants of Pakistan’s Trade Balance: An ARDL Cointegration Approach," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 15(1), pages 1-26, Jan-Jun.
    6. Anonymous, 1952. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(4), pages 644-646, November.
    7. Anonymous, 1952. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(1), pages 121-125, February.
    8. Jarita Duasa, 2007. "Determinants of Malaysian Trade Balance: An ARDL Bound Testing Approach," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 89-102.
    9. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    10. Zsolt Darvas, 2012. "Real Effective Exchange Rates for 178 Countries: a New Database," Working Papers 1201, Department of Mathematical Economics and Economic Analysis, Corvinus University of Budapest.
    11. Cameron, Samuel, 1994. "A review of the econometric evidence on the effects of capital punishment," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 197-214.
    12. Khan , M. Zakir Saadullah & Hossain, M. Ismail, 2012. "Determinants of Trade Balance of Bangladesh: A Dynamic Panel Data Analysis," Bangladesh Development Studies, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS), vol. 35(2), pages 45-65, June.
    13. Isaac Ehrlich, 1996. "Crime, Punishment, and the Market for Offenses," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 43-67, Winter.
    14. Johnson, Harry G., 1972. "The Monetary Approach to Balance-of-Payments Theory," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 1555-1572, March.
    15. Anonymous, 1952. "International Monetary Fund," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(3), pages 446-447, August.
    16. Sidney S. Alexander, 1952. "Effects of a Devaluation on a Trade Balance," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 2(2), pages 263-278, April.
    17. Stephen K. Layson, 1983. "Homicide and Deterrence: Another View of the Canadian Time-Series Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 52-73, February.
    18. Aniekan Okon AKPANSUNG & Sikiru Jimoh BABALOLA, 2013. "Effects of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(5), pages 605-617.
    19. Ehrlich, Isaac, 1977. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: Reply," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(3), pages 452-458, June.
    20. Yasmina Guechari, 2012. "An Empirical Study on the Effects of Real Effective Exchange Rate on Algeria¡¯s Trade Balance," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(4), pages 102-115, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Muhammad Shahid Hassan & Amna Kausar & Noman Arshed, 2022. "Investigating Export Determinants: A Time Series Evidence From Canada," SAGE Open, , vol. 12(2), pages 21582440221, June.
    2. Saghir Pervaiz GHAURI & Hina QADIR & Rizwan Raheem AHMED & Dalia STREIMIKIENE & Justas STREIMIKIS, 2022. "The Exports Performance of Pakistan: Evidence from the ARDL Cointegration Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 150-168, December.
    3. Rabeya Khatoon & Md Emran Hasan & Md Wahid Ferdous Ibon & Shahidul Islam & Jeenat Mehareen & Rubaiya Murshed & Md Nahid Ferdous Pabon & Md. Jillur Rahman & Musharrat Shabnam Shuchi, 2022. "Aggregation, asymmetry, and common factors for Bangladesh’s exchange rate–trade balance relation," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(6), pages 2739-2770, June.
    4. Liurong Pan & Asad Amin & Nian Zhu & Abbas Ali Chandio & Eric Yaw Naminse & Aadil Hameed Shah, 2022. "Exploring the Asymmetrical Influence of Economic Growth, Oil Price, Consumer Price Index and Industrial Production on the Trade Deficit in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(23), pages 1-22, November.
    5. Chen, Shengming & Hassan, Muhammad Shahid & Latif, Ayesha & Rafay, Abdul & Mahmood, Haider & Xu, Xiaowei, 2023. "Investigating resource curse/blessing hypothesis: An empirical insights from Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Portugal economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    6. Yu-Ke, Chen & Hassan, Muhammad Shahid & Kalim, Rukhsana & Mahmood, Haider & Arshed, Noman & Salman, Muhammad, 2022. "Testing asymmetric influence of clean and unclean energy for targeting environmental quality in environmentally poor economies," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 765-775.
    7. Gao, Jinchao & Hassan, Muhammad Shahid & Kalim, Rukhsana & Sharif, Arshian & Alkhateeb, Tarek Tawfik Yousef & Mahmood, Haider, 2023. "The role of clean and unclean energy resources in inspecting N-shaped impact of industrial production on environmental quality: A case of high polluting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    8. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Mary Leung, 2021. "US trade deficit, a reality check: New evidence incorporating asymmetric and non‐linear effects of exchange rate dynamics," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 818-836, March.
    9. Rao Muhammad Atif & Haider Mahmood & Liu Haiyun & Haiou Mao, 2019. "Determinants and efficiency of Pakistan’s chemical products’ exports: An application of stochastic frontier gravity model," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(5), pages 1-15, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Linda Akoto & Daniel Sakyi, 2019. "Empirical Analysis of the Determinants of Trade Balance in Post-liberalization Ghana," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 54(3), pages 177-205, August.
    2. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2012. "Does Nominal Devaluation Improve Income Distribution? Evidence from Bangladesh," South Asian Survey, , vol. 19(1), pages 61-77, March.
    3. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Dead man walking: an empirical reassessment of the deterrent effect of capital punishment using the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(17), pages 1975-1989.
    4. Muhammad Shahbaz & Mohammad Mafizur Rahman, 2012. "The Dynamic of Financial Development, Imports, Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Cointegration and Causality Analysis in Pakistan," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 13(2), pages 201-219, June.
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Jalil, Abdul & Islam, Faridul, 2010. "Real Exchange Rate Changes and Trade Balance in Pakistan: A Revisit," MPRA Paper 27631, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nawaz, Kishwar & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric & Uddin, Gazi Salah, 2013. "On the validity of the Keynesian Absolute Income hypothesis in Pakistan: An ARDL bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 290-296.
    7. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nawaz, Kishwer & AROURI, Mohamed El Hedi & Teulon, Frédéric, 2013. "Does The Keynesian Absolute Income Hypothesis Exist in Pakistan?," MPRA Paper 47923, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Jul 2013.
    8. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-411 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Rukhsana Kalim & Muhammad Shahid Hassan, 2014. "Public Defense Spending and Poverty in Pakistan," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 211(4), pages 93-115, December.
    10. Shaar, Karam & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi, 2016. "US-China trade and exchange rate dilemma: The role of trade data discrepancy," Working Paper Series 5145, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    11. Shah, Anwar & Majeed, Muhammad Tariq, 2014. "Real Exchange Rate and Trade Balance in Pakistan: An ARDL Co-integration Approach," MPRA Paper 57674, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Muhammad SHAHBAZ, 2009. "On Nominal and Real Devaluations Relation: An Econometric Evidence for Pakistan," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    13. Akpansung, Aniekan O., 2021. "Impact of Real Effective Exchange Rates on Balance of Payments: Empirical Evidence from Nigeria," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(4), September.
    14. Mahmood, Haider & Alkhateeb, Tarek Tawfik Yousef & Ahmed, Nawaz, 2017. "Impact of devaluation on Saudi oil exports: The J-Curve analysis," MPRA Paper 109454, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Saqlain Latif Satti & Muhammad Shahid Hassan & Fozia Hayat & Sudharshan Reddy Paramati, 2016. "Economic Growth and Inflow of Remittances: Do They Combat Poverty in an Emerging Economy?," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 1119-1134, July.
    16. Hernán Rincón, 1999. "Testing the Short-Long-Run Exchange Rate Effects on Trade Balance: The Case of Colombia," Borradores de Economia 120, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    17. Vacu, Nomfudo P. & Odhiambo, Nicholas M., 2020. "The Determinants of Import Demand in South Africa: An Empirical Investigation," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(1), pages 51-76.
    18. Ahmad, Najid & Du, Liangsheng, 2017. "Effects of energy production and CO2 emissions on economic growth in Iran: ARDL approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 521-537.
    19. Muhammad Shahbaz & Talat Afza & Muhammad Shahbaz Shabbir, 2013. "Financial Development, Domestic Savings and Poverty Reduction in Pakistan: Using Cointegration and Granger Causality Analysis," International Journal of Economics and Empirical Research (IJEER), The Economics and Social Development Organization (TESDO), vol. 1(5), pages 59-73, May.
    20. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zeshan, Muhammad & Afza, Talat, 2012. "Is energy consumption effective to spur economic growth in Pakistan? New evidence from bounds test to level relationships and Granger causality tests," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2310-2319.
    21. Bernard Njindan Iyke & Sin-Yu Ho, 2018. "Real exchange rate volatility and domestic consumption in Ghana," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 19(5), pages 513-523, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:epolit:v:34:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40888-017-0053-7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.