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Dead Man Walking: An Empirical Reassessment of the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment Using the Bounds Testing Approach to Cointegration

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  • Russell Smyth
  • Paresh Kumar Narayan

Abstract

This paper empirically estimates a murder supply equation for the United States from 1965 to 2001 within a cointegration and error correction framework. Our findings suggest that any support for the deterrence hypothesis is sensitive to the inclusion of variables for the effect of guns and other crimes. In the long-run we find that real income and the conditional probability of receiving the death sentence are the main factors explaining variations in the homicide rate. In the short-run the aggravated assault rate and robbery rate are the most important determinants of the homicide ra

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Econometric Society in its series Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings with number 332.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2004
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Handle: RePEc:ecm:ausm04:332

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Keywords: Capital Punishment; Deterrent Effect; Cointegration;

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  1. Stephen K. Layson, 1983. "Homicide and Deterrence: Another View of the Canadian Time-Series Evidence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 16(1), pages 52-73, February.
  2. Dezhbakhsh, Hashem & Rubin, Paul H, 1998. "Lives Saved or Lives Lost? The Effects of Concealed-Handgun Laws on Crime," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 88(2), pages 468-74, May.
  3. Hoenack, Stephen A & Weiler, William C, 1980. "A Structural Model of Murder Behavior and the Criminal Justice System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 327-41, June.
  4. Isaac Ehrlich, 1973. "The Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment: A Question of Life and Death," NBER Working Papers 0018, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Haug, Alfred A, 2002. " Temporal Aggregation and the Power of Cointegration Tests: A Monte Carlo Study," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 64(4), pages 399-412, September.
  6. Mocan, H Naci & Gittings, R Kaj, 2003. "Getting Off Death Row: Commuted Sentences and the Deterrent Effect of Capital Punishment," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 46(2), pages 453-78, October.
  7. Dale Cloninger & Roberto Marchesini, 2001. "Execution and deterrence: a quasi-controlled group experiment," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(5), pages 569-576.
  8. James A. Yunker, 2001. "A New Statistical Analysis of Capital Punishment Incorporating U.S. Postmoratorium Data," Social Science Quarterly, Southwestern Social Science Association, vol. 82(2), pages 297-311.
  9. Phillips, Peter C B & Hansen, Bruce E, 1990. "Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variables Regression with I(1) Processes," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 99-125, January.
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  12. Ehrlich, Isaac & Liu, Zhiqiang, 1999. "Sensitivity Analyses of the Deterrence Hypothesis: Let's Keep the Econ in Econometrics," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 42(1), pages 455-87, April.
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  22. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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  27. Cameron, Samuel, 1988. "The Economics of Crime Deterrence: A Survey of Theory and Evidence," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(2), pages 301-23.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Kirchgässner, Gebhard, 2011. "Econometric Estimates of Deterrence of the Death Penalty: Facts or Ideology," Economics Working Paper Series 1115, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science.
  2. Berit C. Gerritzen & Gebhard Kirchgässner, 2013. "Facts or Ideology: What Determines the Results of Econometric Estimates of the Deterrence Effect of Death Penalty? A Meta-Analysis," CESifo Working Paper Series 4159, CESifo Group Munich.
  3. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Dividend Growth in Germany: Long-Run Structural Modelling versus Bounds Testing Approach," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany 250/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  4. Verheyen, Florian, 2011. "Bilateral exports from Euro Zone countries to the US: Does exchange rate variability play a role?," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research Discussion Papers 121, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
  5. repec:got:cegedp:121 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
  7. Samuel Bindu & Lloyd Chigusiwa & D. Mazambani & L. Muchabaiwa & V. Mudavanhu, 2011. "The Effect of stock market wealth on private consumption in Zimbabwe," International Journal of Economic Sciences and Applied Research (IJESAR), Technological Educational Institute (TEI) of Kavala, Greece, vol. 4(2), pages 125-142, August.
  8. Sahar Bahmani & Ali Kutan, 2010. "How stable is the demand for money in emerging economies?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(26), pages 3307-3318.
  9. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "(How) Do Stock Market Returns React to Monetary Policy? - An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany 253/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  10. Fedoseeva, Svetlana, 2013. "Do German exporters PTM? Searching for right answers in sugar confectionery exports," Discussion Papers 62, Justus Liebig University Giessen, Center for international Development and Environmental Research (ZEU).
  11. Kollias, Christos & Mylonidis, Nikolaos & Paleologou, Suzanna-Maria, 2013. "Crime and the effectiveness of public order spending in Greece: Policy implications of some persistent findings," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 121-133.
  12. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Zeshan, Muhammad & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar, 2011. "Analysis of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption, real GDP and CO2 emissions: A structural VAR approach in Romania," MPRA Paper 34066, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Oct 2011.
  13. Muhammad, Shahbaz & V G R, Chandran & Pervaiz, Azeem, 2011. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth: cointegration, causality and forecast error variance decomposition tests for Pakistan," MPRA Paper 35103, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Nov 2011.

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